So the only Metal Gear game I've ever actually played was the 1998 Metal Gear Solid for the PS1 when I was a kid. I've not played a single other game in the series since.
Which ones would you recommend? Would it be better to play them in chronological order to get the full overarching story, or do they work ok independent of one another?
how you play is up to you. The Core games are MGS 1-5 and peacewalker. the other games usually ad some side story elements that are nice to know but less critical to the overarching series plot.(metal gear games, as well as metal gear acid, and portable ops). Survive doesn't exist.
Feel free to play the core games in production (1, 2, 3, Peace Walker, 4, 5) or chronological (3, peace walker, 5(including ground zeroes), 1, 2, 4)
for the timeline of the spinoff titles, classic Metal gear games takes post 5 pre 1 (deals with a character whose identity you learn in 5, but generally not very vital to the plot). Acid takes place in an alt universe after 4, portable ops is between 3 and peacewalker.. The side story games are almost like filler missions where a short plot would take place, but doesn't really critically affect the general plot. It's just there to give more progression to the soldier capabilities of Naked/Solid snake
generally speaking you can sorta break it up into two halves, the former deals with Big Boss (3, Peace Walker, 5) and the latter half is the les enfants terrible trilogy (1, 2, 4) (the MSX games serves as a bridge between the two plots to a small scale, linking a character you see in 5 and characters would see in the latter trilogy)
I'd advise heavily against playing MGS in chronological order. You miss out on a lot or at best get it retroactively and whatever retcon they kept throwing in there do serve as twists to the story