Serious post here, what are your predictions? Do the US sign on for a subscription to Hitler or Hitler+? What makes you believe this?

My take: Harris eeks out a victory, based on the vibes I get. She may flip NC too. I think that second part because the overall trend of polling has had her slowly increasing on average there. AZ is flipping back to Trump this go around.

Second possibility I see is that the electoral college shenanigans the GOP is angling for in NE actually results in the first ever tie. Supreme court gives it to Trump even though he loses the popular vote. Libs say "ah well, never the less".

Either way, I think there's going to be hog riots in MI, PA, and NC if it flips.

  • BodyBySisyphus [he/him]
    ·
    2 months ago

    I don't think abortion moves the needle too much this round. The Republicans have been pretty quiet and, while it does drive turnout when it's on the ballot, I think most people are still viewing it as a local issue.

    Biden was successful in 2020 because the dems were highly successful at painting him as the safe option. That's not really part of the messaging this time, so I think it's going to be like 2016, where it's a question of what a few key constituencies in a few strategic areas are thinking. Muslims in MI are definitely one, folks affected by the hurricane may be another, some randos in PA that didn't constitute a coherent bloc until now and who therefore were not sampled well in polls might be a third.

    The only question mark around the chuds is how motivated they are to turn out because there's zero chance they get flipped, and they tend to be reliable voters who want to see their guy in charge regardless of the presence of an agenda.