I think it’ll be very close but Kamala will win. I think she’ll barely squeak by in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump will barely win Georgia, she’ll win Michigan and Nevada more solidly, and Arizona will go for Trump. I think this outcome will be less of a reflection of support for Kamala and more of a loss in enthusiasm for Trump this time around. This is a group of people who have been told over and over that the vote is rigged, therefore their vote doesn’t matter, and being generally lazy, they may be looking for an excuse to just stay at home.

I say this fully expecting to be proven totally wrong in a month and therefore be completely owned, but that’s what my gut tells me now. It really could go either way.