Everyone keeps saying that Biden has it in the bag, but that’s what they said last time for Hillary. I have this weird feeling he’ll somehow worm his way to victory.

  • CarlTheRedditor [he/him]
    ·
    4 years ago

    What was 538 saying right before the election, Trump had like a 30% chance of winning?

    They wrote an article literally titled "Trump is just a normal polling error away from victory"

    Silver and 538 get a lot of shit, and their punditry should be avoided (as should most punditry...or at least, don't take it very seriously), but their model seems to have been the most accurate of any of them in 2016. And they were getting flak back then before the election for not "giving" Mother near-certain odds. Such was the state of things then. It was shit.