Everyone keeps saying that Biden has it in the bag, but that’s what they said last time for Hillary. I have this weird feeling he’ll somehow worm his way to victory.
It sure looks like Biden has elite support sown up, including the Roberts court. If it's close enough to go to the Supreme Court they'll find a way to hand it to Biden.
Prep yourself for 4 years of poo flinging from Trump worshippers.
The scary part is what happens when somebody smart pays attention to how Trump got elected, a person actually capable of sewing up military and intelligence agency support.
Also, answer an honest question. If you're a USian and a right-winger promised to give you a job and health care, and didn't talk that loud about racism or abortion, would you consider voting for him? You know, it's a cliché to say it but the fascists were quite popular in the 30s for a reason. In those countries there was literally nobody else in power who even paid lip service to helping the people. Kinda like the situation we're in now, where both parties are corporate owned and don't give a shit about any of us, and everyone knows it.
The thing about 2016 is, the signs were there that Hillary was in trouble, it's just no one wanted to believe it. People knew Hillary was going to win, so they disregarded all the evidence pointing to a really tight race in the upper midwest. What was 538 saying right before the election, Trump had like a 30% chance of winning? That's pretty good plus he had a few things break his way. If Hillary wasn't such an arrogant ass who loved the smell of her own farts or if she had better advisors than Robbie fucking Mook, she would have spent more time in places like Wisconsin and Michigan and probably would have won the thing.
I think it's a really bad take to say "well polls were wrong in 2016 so maybe they're wrong now too". No, the difference is Biden is showing to have much more significant leads in the key swing states than Hillary did. Assuming a fair election, right now Biden is pretty strongly favored to win and I think unless something significant happens between now and the election I'd bet a lot of money he wins.
Of course the wild card is whether or not it will be a fair election. We all know what's going to happen: Trump will call shenanigans and the GOP will push the courts to give Trump the win. Whether or not that works, your guess is as good as mine.
I strongly agree with Matt Christman on this... if on election night it shows Trump winning (because we won't have much mail in ballots counted, which I think will break heavily for Biden), Trump will simply declare himself the winner because "we always get the winner on election night"... a dumb argument that I could actually see resonating with a lot of Americans.
What was 538 saying right before the election, Trump had like a 30% chance of winning?
They wrote an article literally titled "Trump is just a normal polling error away from victory"
Silver and 538 get a lot of shit, and their punditry should be avoided (as should most punditry...or at least, don't take it very seriously), but their model seems to have been the most accurate of any of them in 2016. And they were getting flak back then before the election for not "giving" Mother near-certain odds. Such was the state of things then. It was shit.
The polls are just as bad this time as they were in 2016. People made the exact same arguments to cover for them being intentionally wrong.
Everyone in media outside of OANN wants Trump gone. They use polling to make it look like he's guaranteed to lose as a way to try to depress turnout. They do this by using insane turnout models that assume that electorate will be even more favorable to Democrats than in 2008.
The "peaceful transition of power" bullshit is just a way to file up liberals in case Trump wins. They are just copying what the Republicans did constantly under Obama. It's "have you stopped beating your wife?" level discourse.
If Biden was actually a sure thing with a 10 point lead, there wouldn't be so much COPE and hedging going on by the media.
The polls are just as bad this time as they were in 2016.
Which is to say they are correct
Hillary was up by +10 at this point 4 years ago. People focus on the final polls, which were adjusted to save face, and not the in-race push polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
She had a 90% chance of winning till the Comey Letter came out and she had a 70% chance of winning. She was expected to win the popular vote by like 3.6%, she won by like 2%. That's normal. You can see the predictions by date if you want
Garbage in garbage out. The Comey letter did not change anyone's mind
The polls dipped immediately once it came out. If it made some people cynical and stay home that affects turnout
Probably tbh. I don't doubt any possibility at this point.
I think it's possible that Trump could win, but it's looking less and less likely. It's a much different situation than 2016, he can still do it with the electoral college but it's really not looking good for him.
I'm expecting Trump to win. If Biden wins, I'll be really surprised.
Biden will manage to ignore both rural and urban America and cement the Democratic Party as the vanguard of a dying class of suburban homeowners which, for anyone under the age of 35, is practically nonexistent.
Demographically speaking, the Republican Party was supposed to be doomed to permanent irrelevance thanks to their shrinking base of fragile white revanchists, but the Democrats have managed to snatch even that defeat from the jaws of inevitable victory.
Frankly, I'm terrified that Mitt Romney will run again. I think he'd beat Biden by a landslide and then implement whatever his creepy Mormon theocratic plans are for the US.
Biden will win, nothing will change, Trump will run again in 2024 and win.
it comes down to a few things for Trump -
#1 is the swing states. He has to win all of them like 2016 all over again. It's possible.
#2 the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot leading up to the election. This is also possible, given how they are trying to cover up with media censorship over Biden's scumbag son. At any moment, they could also drop a bombshell with another Biden sexual assault case. The liberal media worked in overdrive to not only cover up the Tara Reade case, but the others (including the one who was underage that he touched).
The real deciding factor of this election is the pandemic. I have zero doubt in a normal election season with no plague virus, Trump would've spent the entire summer going around doing rallies for the chuds. Meanwhile, Dems would keep Biden locked in the basement where he has been most of this election and he would only emerge from time to time to make some WTF racist comment about black people or have a dementia brain melting moment. Trump would go on to win by bigger margins without the pandemic.
Coronavirus is really the only reason Biden has a shot at all. He is running on nothing except 'Not Trump'. Unlike Hillary and previous Dems, he don't even bother really paying lip service or giving empty platitudes to popular policies like M4A and defunding the police. Biden even went as far as to publicly talk about how he supports fracking ffs.
Voter turnout will be low again. If Trump does win, I think it will be because no one is buying into FascismLite with Biden's law and order campaign.
On the flip side of Trump winning, my fear is Biden actually pulling it off and then down ballot voting all goes to Republicans, securing them the senate and house. Make no mistake about it, we're fucked either way and Biden's presidency is going to be a nightmare, but if Republicans keep congress following this election, that's a scary thought with them ready to push and bully Biden who actually wants to work with them. They'll bully him to the point they get far more than they want.
100% agree with you. I can't stand the "big tent" talk. Liberals want Republicans, they don't want the left. They make that loud and clear with how much animosity they shove towards us, but will go out their way to try and make Republicans comfortable. After Biden wins, the first thing the Democratic party are going to do is try to oust the progressive SocDems that they despise so much. They've been trying to gerrymander AOC's district in NYC for a few years now. They won't have a problem with Republicans helping them go after the progressives either and all this is going to set up an ugly midterms for 2022.
Everything you said is precisely how I see it happening. Out here in the south, a Democrat governor actually won Louisiana in 2016 using this same strategy that you explain about Kentucky. They only won cause the people in Louisiana hated the previous Republican governor, yet down ballot voting got the GOP to win everything else. This included the senate runoff race where Trump came down to the state and did rallies for the Republican candidate, meanwhile the DNC didn't spend a dime helping the Democrat candidate nor did any of the big names of their party endorse him (the Republican candidate ended up winning comfortably after this). That was 4 years ago and guess who leads the polls right now in Louisiana? You guessed it, Republicans are in a prime position to retake the state entirely.
I 100% agree about 2022 too. It's going to be a bloodbath. If Dems do take back the senate and keep the house next month, it will be by a slim margin. Republicans already have an advantage cause they've had years of the psychopaths in that annoying Lincoln Project group whom liberals love and have been throwing money at. That money will immediately go to building up Republican campaigns for 2022 after Trump is gone. Liberals are so fucking arrogant about this election, they don't even realize that by Biden basically being George W Bush 2.0, it don't help them and instead is going to help Republicans big time. The GOP will just point out how he hates poor people and is doing nothing about the economy during a recession.
Voter turn out wasn’t low in 2016 at all. It was higher than 2012, and higher than everything from 1980-2004.
Population numbers have changed a lot since then. It was still low.
I still put it about 50/50... biden will likely win the vote but who knows how much the mail in ballot fuckery and all that will play into things.
It depends on how committed the GOP is to rigging this in Trump's favor, I think
Honestly if it was a legit race he would probably lose but its very clear they have latched on to the trump ship and they aren't going to let it sink just yet
if votes were not suppressed and properly counted, the odds might be 30% trump/70% biden.
but i think trump and his loyalists are willing to go pretty far on voter suppression, manipulating ballots, rules lawyering, etc. to the point where it's more of a 50/50. and there's always the possibility of some crazy breaking news between now and the election.
