I'm not really invested in defending Nate Silver or in the results of the presidential election, I just think statistics are cool.
Being a liberal doesn't make you bad at stats. The degree to which 538's models reflect personal value judgments is almost certainly minimized, so dismissing them out of hand because they come from Nate Silver and use cutesy animal drawings doesn't really "own the libs."
"But 2016" they gave Trump more of a chance than anyone else did, and besides they've since updated their models to avoid those specific problems.
And, I'm sorry, even a really really shitty statistical model is going to be a better election predictor than your opinion on what the "mood on the street" is or whatever.
Of course, Trump's voter suppression campaign is a huge wild card in all of this.
Wasn’t he like 50 for 50 in 2012 with Obama? And got most of the senate right too?
His models are better than almost anyone else, but also stats don’t determine everything and it’s similar to the complaints sports people have about statisticians. You have to have a feel for real life as well. Polling is a tool, not the only tool.
Trump very well could still win, but I don’t think people are gonna vote for the president that got covid which is who he has become.
To be fair, his model does include many more factors than just polling.