I'm not really invested in defending Nate Silver or in the results of the presidential election, I just think statistics are cool.
Being a liberal doesn't make you bad at stats. The degree to which 538's models reflect personal value judgments is almost certainly minimized, so dismissing them out of hand because they come from Nate Silver and use cutesy animal drawings doesn't really "own the libs."
"But 2016" they gave Trump more of a chance than anyone else did, and besides they've since updated their models to avoid those specific problems.
And, I'm sorry, even a really really shitty statistical model is going to be a better election predictor than your opinion on what the "mood on the street" is or whatever.
Of course, Trump's voter suppression campaign is a huge wild card in all of this.
Biden's going to win because boomers like misery and he is human misery, in ways Trump just isn't. They hate aspiration, dreams, principle, hope and those who fight for anything, that's why they like Biden and despised Bernie. They know their time is running out either way, which is why they desperately simp to never trumpers hoping to get more boomers to blockade their own base from having anyone that isn't a GOP hugger in power.