Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Chickpeas [none/use name]
    ·
    14 days ago

    Honest question, what is the difference between this and all the free trade agreements China signs?

    • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
      ·
      edit-2
      13 days ago

      To be quite honest, unless you give an example I can't answer.

      But as for Brazil imagine the China situation a decade ago with all their air polution in Beijing yeah? One of the great challenges for China has always been dealing with enviromental issues, but their state control allowed them to handled it. As much as capitalists don't like it China, they have to abide by CPC environmental rules. Praise dengism when it works! And it did there.

      This is vastly different from the current situation in the Amazon and Brazil. I'm sure you know of the Bolsonaro government horros so that is not even the point but rather the structural issue of Brazilian environmental issues that is very related to the much needed and much fought for land agrarian reform. Again here the difference between China and Brazil are obvious yeah? China solved this issue in the 20th century, Brazil did not.

      Brazilian land is still vastly in control of hereditary capitalist groups and large families that date all the way back to colonial era.

      I wont go too much in depth here but the context of land reform is key because most of the amazon deforestation, most of the land used for cattle and farming for exports, sometimes obtained illegaly and in direct armed confrontation with the federal government.

      The best example of this is the very recent historicaly castastrophic forest fires. First I'll give you what the westerners are saying yeah?

      The hypothesis that criminals are piggybacking on climate change needs more study, Lima said. But there is some evidence for it. One clue is that the conservation area that has suffered the most damage is Jamanxim National Forest. Dozens of landgrabbers have been illegally ranching cattle there, hoping their operations will be legalized.

      It is near the city of Novo Progresso, a deforestation hotspot where Bolsonaro, who favors economic development over forest preservation, received 83% of the votes in his failed 2022 re-election bid.

      Unlike wildfire in North America, where blazes sometimes reach treetops and expand from there, in the Amazon rainforest, fire spreads mostly through leaves on the ground, causing less harm. The deforestation control agency, known as INPE, tallies these areas as burn scars, not as deforestation.

      That is why, despite the surge in fire, this year’s deforestation rate is still slowing under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and could end 2024 with a 60% reduction compared to Bolsonaro’s years. This shows how deforestation is only one metric — and one that does not provide a full picture for damage to the forest in a given year.

      “In areas where the fire was very intense, the forest may completely collapse,” Claudio Almeida, a senior officer at INPE, told the AP. “Even regions where the fire was not as intense are now severely degraded and fragile. Another season of intense drought and fires could lead to the breakdown of the forest.”

      So important points:

      1- Deforestation metrics are not going to match forest fires,

      2- There is evidence criminals are using the opportunity to cause more fires. Criminals, but for what purpose could they have to do this?

      Now I'll give you the PCBR analysis "Agribusiness must be held responsible for the fires. " of it(google TL) I can't quote everything

      However, accidental cases cannot hide the deliberate actions of fires to expand pasture and crop areas. One of the areas most affected by the fires and which contributed most to the production of toxic smoke in August was the Arc of Deforestation, an area that runs from the east and south of Pará to the west, passing through Mato Grosso, southern Amazonas, Rondônia and Acre.

      Indigenous Lands (IL) invaded by mining are also being heavily attacked by arson. The Kayapó (PA), Munduruku (PA) and Sararé (MT) territories, which are currently the most affected by mining, suffered 1,111 fires between August 1st and 28th. This number is almost seven times higher than the 163 fires recorded in these territories in 2023. In these cases, the inaction of the Lula government in not having carried out the eviction of mining from the ILs is decisive. Furthermore, according to the Indimap platform , 3,469 points with flames were identified in ILs in Brazil in the week between August 19th and 26th alone.

      In the case of sugarcane crops in the state of São Paulo, it is important to remember that the use of fire was predominant in the harvest until the 2008/2009 harvest . In the 2010/2011 harvest, 2.1 million hectares of sugarcane were burned in São Paulo. An area 26 times larger than the 80 thousand hectares burned in August 2024. There are a series of studies that have pointed to the worsening health of part of the population in the producing regions due to the burning of sugarcane.

      Since sugarcane burning is nothing new, the swift actions proposed by the São Paulo government and the federal government in favor of sugar mill owners and plantation owners are primarily political and ideological in nature. They aim to place agribusiness as the victim of the fires, disguising its responsibility for climate change and for many of the deliberately set fires. The measure that has drawn the most attention is the so-called emergency measure , which prevents landowners from being fined or sanctioned by environmental agencies. It is a blank check to practice burning, since all one has to do is go to the municipal Agriculture House and declare themselves a victim.

      In addition, the measures include transferring another portion of the public fund to agribusiness. Ruralist and Bolsonaro supporter Guilherme Piai, Secretary of Agriculture and Supply for the state of São Paulo, announced credit with 0% interest and a two-year grace period for landowners affected by the fires. Carlos Fávaro, Minister of Agriculture, said that the federal government is also studying proposals along the same lines.

      They go further I recommend reading. So I'm sure most of this is obvious yeah, capitalist pigs go burr.

      But here is the fundamental context. If China were to be making FTAs while simultaneously enacting pro-landowner/agribusiness law, giving them tax breaks and incentives while failing to protect their own national interests(i.e environmental protection), then they would be victims of imperialism at best and just another global south country government compromised by capitalists interests at worst. Obviously China already got a much tougher handle on their internal interests.

      This is not the same for Brazil. When Brazil goes in the international stage and does nothing but yet another FTA with the imperialist powers for absolutely no gain but further exploitation, natural destruction and capital interests, then they're not resisting imperialism. We need to ask "but wait are they fighting at home then?"

      THIS is where ultimate critique lies with Lula/PT government and legacy. The answer is sadly, no they're not fighting at home. Put aside the government's own neoliberal austerity push, in the environmental case here the government is unable and unwilling to fight the landowner class.

      If you ask me to make an argument Lula/PT are "anti-imperialists" and all I got to show for is neoliberalism at home, compromising and subjecting to corporate and agricultural business interests while stepping on landmines trying to navigate US/EU vs BRICS? I got no argument then.

      Why? Because Lula is out there signing a FTA that benefits agrobusiness, the same agrobusiness which the Lula government gives record tax breaks for. Agribusiness is champion of federal government tax benefits

      Data on federal tax incentives for 2024 reveal the government's economic priorities, with emphasis on the agricultural and technology sectors, which are the biggest beneficiaries on the list. Agribusiness alone accounts for 18.7% of the tax waiver amount.

      The total tax benefits amount to R$546 billion, with the overwhelming majority of those benefiting from them being members of the country's ruling classes, such as large landowners, Braskem, Globo, TAM, and Azul Linhas Aéreas. The funds from the 2024 tax breaks alone could finance the entire Bolsa Família program for three consecutive years, if collected.

      More worrying, however, is the volume of benefits granted to pesticides used by large-scale landowners in rural production. Totaling R$10.7 billion, tax breaks on pesticides often benefit the acquisition and application of chemical products that are internationally condemned as harmful and polluting.

      There is a long breakdown of each industry I wont quote but the conclusion

      Federal tax incentives in 2024 demonstrate an inestimable value of public resources that are given on a silver platter to the country's ruling classes. A significant concentration of agribusiness in these revenues can be observed. In the context of the austerity discourse of the Lula-Alckmin government, in which the desired cut of R$50 billion in public services such as health and education is being hinted at, the tax breaks for the national bourgeoisie are even more scandalous, demonstrating that their privileges will remain not only intact, but will grow, while the working people will end up paying the bill for Minister Fernando Haddad's economic agenda.

      Anti-imperialism isn't signing trade deals and then smashing the neoliberal boot at home. We may all be victims but these politicians are not fighters.

      To be absolutely fair, nobody denies there was an improvement from Bolsonaro. Do not mistake this as Lula is as bad as Bolsonaro, it is bad in another way.

      • Chickpeas [none/use name]
        ·
        13 days ago

        Didn't brazil make a law saying it would seize land from people caught doing slash and burn?