Yes, that I agree with. If you're looking at the 538 model 6 months out you should look at its previous predictions 6 months out to see how confident to be in its predictions (or maybe even look at its worst prediction at 6 months out or less for each election).
But basically yes, far enough from an election its silly to pay much attention to polls or models. But we're actually getting pretty close to the presidential election now!
Yes, that I agree with. If you're looking at the 538 model 6 months out you should look at its previous predictions 6 months out to see how confident to be in its predictions (or maybe even look at its worst prediction at 6 months out or less for each election).
But basically yes, far enough from an election its silly to pay much attention to polls or models. But we're actually getting pretty close to the presidential election now!