I'd argue that Israeli invasion was very much predictable given that they were already occupying Golan Heights. It was pretty obvious that they would try to expand their area of control as soon as central government fell. I'd also argue that Jolani faction isn't actually governing much of anything. It's just one of many different factions that are all fighting each other and that have different backers. So, yeah if anything the 1.5 million figure is very much a low ball estimate, and actual refugee crisis will be far greater.
Even if we agree that everything I listed was predictable all along (which I don't think is fair, I mean there's Israel being an expansionist Apartheid state, and then there's the rest of the civil war proceeding as it did), it doesn't change anything I said. If you're making estimates on Dec 6th you aren't gonna be like 'it will be 1.5 million displaced people assuming the SAA folds without fighting a single battle'. You'll say 'considering the ongoing battles and the potential for further escalation, we estimate up to 1.5 million displaced people at this moment'.
I'd argue that Israeli invasion was very much predictable given that they were already occupying Golan Heights. It was pretty obvious that they would try to expand their area of control as soon as central government fell. I'd also argue that Jolani faction isn't actually governing much of anything. It's just one of many different factions that are all fighting each other and that have different backers. So, yeah if anything the 1.5 million figure is very much a low ball estimate, and actual refugee crisis will be far greater.
Even if we agree that everything I listed was predictable all along (which I don't think is fair, I mean there's Israel being an expansionist Apartheid state, and then there's the rest of the civil war proceeding as it did), it doesn't change anything I said. If you're making estimates on Dec 6th you aren't gonna be like 'it will be 1.5 million displaced people assuming the SAA folds without fighting a single battle'. You'll say 'considering the ongoing battles and the potential for further escalation, we estimate up to 1.5 million displaced people at this moment'.
Like I said, I think 1.5 million is the lowest number, my expectation is that the actual number will be much higher.