This is a huge counterfactual that relies on Trotsky basically being a different person or someone hacking the brains of the old comrades. Everyone wanted Stalin. But let's assume Trotsky assumes power with a broad mandate.
Firstly as others have mentioned, Permanent revolution in the 20s would have gotten the USSR curbstomped. In the 60-70s...it might have been more workable. This right here is a dealbreaker. But lets assume Trotsky tries it out, gets pushback, and backs away.
Trotsky was almost as pro-industrialisation as Stalin, so much of the same things would have happened there, perhaps slightly more competently administered (not that Stalin was incompetent here, Trotsky was just a superb mind at this kind of stuff.) He probably was more focused on council communism, but not as much as the average Trot would have you think. He was very much for "revolutionary discipline" and more for the leadership of the party top ranks over Stalin's repeated attempts to democratize the party.
He'd have been probably about as purge-happy, if not more so. Trotsky was always the hardliner in putting down dissent, often going against Lenin.
Remember much of the purgers were fed via false data from German intelligence, and there were plotters, most of whom woul be plotting no matter who was in power.
On the other hand Trotsky might not have made the stupid, stupid choices Stalin made for Secret Police heads. Trotsky may well have headed the purges personally, and it would have resulted in a bloodier but more accurately targeted and shorter purge.
WW2 probably would have had a slightly less industrially developed USSR under better initial command. So a slower retreat to Moscow and maybe less encirclements but ultimately the pushback to the German border would have been much harder.
I think its kind of a wash, personally. Material conditions favoured Stalin, and while other choices could be made the USSR was very constrained in its survivable paths. That said I'd love to see old Trotsky play the Decolonisation game in Africa and deal with Mao post WW2.
This is a huge counterfactual that relies on Trotsky basically being a different person or someone hacking the brains of the old comrades. Everyone wanted Stalin. But let's assume Trotsky assumes power with a broad mandate.
Firstly as others have mentioned, Permanent revolution in the 20s would have gotten the USSR curbstomped. In the 60-70s...it might have been more workable. This right here is a dealbreaker. But lets assume Trotsky tries it out, gets pushback, and backs away.
Trotsky was almost as pro-industrialisation as Stalin, so much of the same things would have happened there, perhaps slightly more competently administered (not that Stalin was incompetent here, Trotsky was just a superb mind at this kind of stuff.) He probably was more focused on council communism, but not as much as the average Trot would have you think. He was very much for "revolutionary discipline" and more for the leadership of the party top ranks over Stalin's repeated attempts to democratize the party.
He'd have been probably about as purge-happy, if not more so. Trotsky was always the hardliner in putting down dissent, often going against Lenin.
Remember much of the purgers were fed via false data from German intelligence, and there were plotters, most of whom woul be plotting no matter who was in power.
On the other hand Trotsky might not have made the stupid, stupid choices Stalin made for Secret Police heads. Trotsky may well have headed the purges personally, and it would have resulted in a bloodier but more accurately targeted and shorter purge.
WW2 probably would have had a slightly less industrially developed USSR under better initial command. So a slower retreat to Moscow and maybe less encirclements but ultimately the pushback to the German border would have been much harder.
I think its kind of a wash, personally. Material conditions favoured Stalin, and while other choices could be made the USSR was very constrained in its survivable paths. That said I'd love to see old Trotsky play the Decolonisation game in Africa and deal with Mao post WW2.