Morning update: Texas just surpassed 95% of its 2016 total votes cast w/ two days of early voting & Election Day left to go. We're just headed for a massive, unprecedented turnout there (and a lot of other places).— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 29, 2020
I think COVID might cause some models to break because it's going to shift voter turnout more to early voting than you might normally see. I always vote early so I don't have to deal with waiting in line, but I know more people who have voted early than I normally see during elections.
Also, a bunch of those counties in his top 10 by increases turnout are traditionally red. I would still bet Trump takes the states, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it.
In any case, some countries have voted more already than in 2016 overall. So even if literally no one shows up on election day turnout is higher, and probably people will still show up on election day
Texas is also one of the fastest growing states in the country, and it historically has absolutely dismal turnout (as in below 50% in Presidential election years). You can't really get lower in their situation. Anything other than a huge incease in turnout in Texas every Presidential cycle would be a major red flag that cartoon-levels of voter supression were going on.
The idea that increased turnout automatically helps Democrats isn't always true, either. It's true in aggregate because a lot of very populous, extremely Democrat-leaning states with machine politics (like New York for example!) have low turnout because they make it just as hard to vote as the deep red states. In red states, like Texas, where the baseline culture, for better or worse, leans towards the Republicans, those infrequent voters are going to be more pro-Trump that the stereotype of non-voters normally is.
I think COVID might cause some models to break because it's going to shift voter turnout more to early voting than you might normally see. I always vote early so I don't have to deal with waiting in line, but I know more people who have voted early than I normally see during elections.
Also, a bunch of those counties in his top 10 by increases turnout are traditionally red. I would still bet Trump takes the states, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it.
In any case, some countries have voted more already than in 2016 overall. So even if literally no one shows up on election day turnout is higher, and probably people will still show up on election day
Texas is also one of the fastest growing states in the country, and it historically has absolutely dismal turnout (as in below 50% in Presidential election years). You can't really get lower in their situation. Anything other than a huge incease in turnout in Texas every Presidential cycle would be a major red flag that cartoon-levels of voter supression were going on.
The idea that increased turnout automatically helps Democrats isn't always true, either. It's true in aggregate because a lot of very populous, extremely Democrat-leaning states with machine politics (like New York for example!) have low turnout because they make it just as hard to vote as the deep red states. In red states, like Texas, where the baseline culture, for better or worse, leans towards the Republicans, those infrequent voters are going to be more pro-Trump that the stereotype of non-voters normally is.