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Even if its not that likely, If Biden does win Texas it will mean the present death of any Dem-Soc influence over the Democratic party. Biden's strategy of appealing to wealthy moderates will be proven beyond a doubt in the eyes of Democrats (because they absolutely only care about winning), and the constantly repeated idea that Biden can be "pushed to the left" will be made even more impossible.
I get that, I just thought this was a semi-interesting factoid more than anything TBH. Fuck white supremacist Biden.
I don't know, I kinda view this like a 2016 situation but in reverse. A bunch of people here have a a strong dislike of Trump more so than any particular affinity for Biden or the Democrats. I could easily see the Dems doing this same strategy again 4 years from now and just absolutely eating shit.
Absolutely dead on, in fact I think they'll probably eat shit two years earlier in the midterms. With Trump gone I don't think Biden will have any motivating policies that will bring voters out for the Dems to the same degree as in 2018, it honestly might be a repeat of the 94 Republican Revolution.
I only feel that in those years in which Biden is President, and he comes in on a super victory, the American left will be shut out of influence. Both because Dem voters will be more apathetic to their messaging, and because the DNC's war against its left factions will only ramp up.
Issue is Biden's reliance on being mr. anti-trump vote means fragmenting within the party is likely post-win more than unity and I think the factional shitfest that breaks out within months of inauguration is just not being thought about right now because election. Obama had more a unifying presence on paper or at least knew how to lead people on while Biden's absence of support for anything being obvious for like 40% of the party if not more becomes a total liability due to just not being there.
I think COVID might cause some models to break because it's going to shift voter turnout more to early voting than you might normally see. I always vote early so I don't have to deal with waiting in line, but I know more people who have voted early than I normally see during elections.
Also, a bunch of those counties in his top 10 by increases turnout are traditionally red. I would still bet Trump takes the states, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it.
In any case, some countries have voted more already than in 2016 overall. So even if literally no one shows up on election day turnout is higher, and probably people will still show up on election day
Texas is also one of the fastest growing states in the country, and it historically has absolutely dismal turnout (as in below 50% in Presidential election years). You can't really get lower in their situation. Anything other than a huge incease in turnout in Texas every Presidential cycle would be a major red flag that cartoon-levels of voter supression were going on.
The idea that increased turnout automatically helps Democrats isn't always true, either. It's true in aggregate because a lot of very populous, extremely Democrat-leaning states with machine politics (like New York for example!) have low turnout because they make it just as hard to vote as the deep red states. In red states, like Texas, where the baseline culture, for better or worse, leans towards the Republicans, those infrequent voters are going to be more pro-Trump that the stereotype of non-voters normally is.
I believe if we try really hard, we can get turnout to even as high as 60%
Armies of lib-boomers out in full force. And all the hispanic voters who hope maybe Biden gets warmer blankets for the kids in cages.
