That one's tough to answer. I'm hopeful that they'll reach Tokmak by the end of the year, but I don't know that they'll take it this year. Russia knows the logistical importance of that place, and they'll throw everything at it to retain it. Plus, there's only like 2 months left in the year before fighting conditions get too degraded by weather. So, I'm guessing that the lines will start to stabilize again at the end of October or beginning of November, and we won't see much progress until next Spring.
The good news, though, is that they're gonna be getting a bunch of F-16s from the Netherlands, so that will help out immensely in the next offensive drive. I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to take Tokmak early on in the year, and then make a push towards Melitopol. Could be celebrating another independence day by the end of next year.
Of course, a lot depends on conditions in Russia. Anything could happen. We've already seen one major coup attempt from Wagner before they stopped about 200km away for some reason. I don't think they're going to try again because they stupidly put all of their upper leadership together in the same plane... but I think it's possible that another coup attempt could happen from a different faction. If Putin is removed or killed, I don't think the war will continue. I think the next guy will just blame Russia's poor performance on the last guy and will call it a day.
sure those wunderwaffen f-16s will do wonders lmao. Just like the leopards
You seriously think Ukraine is going to win? Tell me more about their counteroffensive
F-16s have an incredible range, and can shoot down Russian helicopters from 100km away.
Yeah sure, the F-16s which crash in the rain and that can't handle anything but pristine landing strips will definitely turn the war in Ukraines favor. Good luck with crewing it too lmao.
They have better training, better equipment, better morale, and an iron will.
The country that has exhausted it's reserve battalions and is forcibly drafting men, while preventing these same men from leaving the country, and which has had several reports describing how the troops at the front have basically no training, is somehow better trained and equipped than the Russians? Ukraine, the country that frequently has equipment issues, and which has complained that the Russians are capable of incessantly shelling them, has equipment issues? Ukraine, the country that now saw the need to make use of cluster munitions? That country?
Tell me more of your tactical knowledge oh wise one. Did you study logistics under Albert Kesselring?
Yeah sure, the F-16s which crash in the rain and that can't handle anything but pristine landing strips will definitely turn the war in Ukraines favor. Good luck with crewing it too lmao.
That's the F35. The F16 though is outclassed by modern russian jet fighters like SU-27 so it's a moot point. Unless the west is giving F35s it doesn't matter, they're generations old tech that cannot handle S300s let alone S400s and S500s.
The F35 also has issues with rain? I'd be interested in learning more, if you have any good sources.
The F 16 does as well. Or at least as far as I know it does - it's not really my field of expertise, but I hyperfocused on it at one point. They have quite a few crashes as a result of heavy rain. Here's one such story. This forum tracks accidents and mishaps for f-16s as well, and it seems to me as if it handles rain worse than others.
Russia has the best anti-air defenses in the world. Period. Also, the F-16s will presumably have to land at some point. When they do land, they can be hit with Russian missiles. Also, I feel like it probably takes more than 6 months of training to become proficient in flying and fighting in an F-16. You might be able to keep the thing from crashing into the ground, but beyond that?
I'm sorry, we've all seen this argument before. It was the Bayraktar drones and Javelins, those were the gamechangers. Then the HIMARS. Oh, but the M777s and Caeser howitzers, that'll win them the war! Then the Leopards and Bradleys, which now lie destroyed in minefields, and the Patriots, which are hit by hypersonic missiles (with liberals argue that due to Newton's Third Law, if you think about it, the Patriots also hit the hypersonic missiles). Now it's the F-16s and the Abrams. It's been a never-ending treadmill of the West bringing out weapons and equipment, promising every single time that THIS will be the thing that makes Putin pee his pants and surrender to the Ukrainians. It hasn't happened, and given the appalling deaths and casualties and destruction on the Zaporozhye front these past two months with Ukraine's third army being ground down to scrap, it doesn't seem like it ever will happen.
That one's tough to answer. I'm hopeful that they'll reach Tokmak by the end of the year, but I don't know that they'll take it this year. Russia knows the logistical importance of that place, and they'll throw everything at it to retain it. Plus, there's only like 2 months left in the year before fighting conditions get too degraded by weather. So, I'm guessing that the lines will start to stabilize again at the end of October or beginning of November, and we won't see much progress until next Spring.
The good news, though, is that they're gonna be getting a bunch of F-16s from the Netherlands, so that will help out immensely in the next offensive drive. I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to take Tokmak early on in the year, and then make a push towards Melitopol. Could be celebrating another independence day by the end of next year.
Of course, a lot depends on conditions in Russia. Anything could happen. We've already seen one major coup attempt from Wagner before they stopped about 200km away for some reason. I don't think they're going to try again because they stupidly put all of their upper leadership together in the same plane... but I think it's possible that another coup attempt could happen from a different faction. If Putin is removed or killed, I don't think the war will continue. I think the next guy will just blame Russia's poor performance on the last guy and will call it a day.
You seriously think Ukraine is going to win? Tell me more about their counteroffensive
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Yeah sure, the F-16s which crash in the rain and that can't handle anything but pristine landing strips will definitely turn the war in Ukraines favor. Good luck with crewing it too lmao.
The country that has exhausted it's reserve battalions and is forcibly drafting men, while preventing these same men from leaving the country, and which has had several reports describing how the troops at the front have basically no training, is somehow better trained and equipped than the Russians? Ukraine, the country that frequently has equipment issues, and which has complained that the Russians are capable of incessantly shelling them, has equipment issues? Ukraine, the country that now saw the need to make use of cluster munitions? That country?
Tell me more of your tactical knowledge oh wise one. Did you study logistics under Albert Kesselring?
That's the F35. The F16 though is outclassed by modern russian jet fighters like SU-27 so it's a moot point. Unless the west is giving F35s it doesn't matter, they're generations old tech that cannot handle S300s let alone S400s and S500s.
The F35 also has issues with rain? I'd be interested in learning more, if you have any good sources.
The F 16 does as well. Or at least as far as I know it does - it's not really my field of expertise, but I hyperfocused on it at one point. They have quite a few crashes as a result of heavy rain. Here's one such story. This forum tracks accidents and mishaps for f-16s as well, and it seems to me as if it handles rain worse than others.
Russia has the best anti-air defenses in the world. Period. Also, the F-16s will presumably have to land at some point. When they do land, they can be hit with Russian missiles. Also, I feel like it probably takes more than 6 months of training to become proficient in flying and fighting in an F-16. You might be able to keep the thing from crashing into the ground, but beyond that?
I'm sorry, we've all seen this argument before. It was the Bayraktar drones and Javelins, those were the gamechangers. Then the HIMARS. Oh, but the M777s and Caeser howitzers, that'll win them the war! Then the Leopards and Bradleys, which now lie destroyed in minefields, and the Patriots, which are hit by hypersonic missiles (with liberals argue that due to Newton's Third Law, if you think about it, the Patriots also hit the hypersonic missiles). Now it's the F-16s and the Abrams. It's been a never-ending treadmill of the West bringing out weapons and equipment, promising every single time that THIS will be the thing that makes Putin pee his pants and surrender to the Ukrainians. It hasn't happened, and given the appalling deaths and casualties and destruction on the Zaporozhye front these past two months with Ukraine's third army being ground down to scrap, it doesn't seem like it ever will happen.
Don't take my word for it, but I think I've read somewhere that Ukrainian pilots won't be ready to fly F-16s until about this time next year at best
Don't forget about cluster bombs and depleted uranium shells
Arent the F-16s incredibly finicky too? Like don't they require specialised airfields?
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Lmao, can't expect they'll have issues with landing fields being slightly dirty when they're all within range of russian munitions.
Allegedly they need a spotless runway to take off as they don't have a filter to protect the air intake against debris.
That probably won't be an issue in Ukraine though, it's just an active warzone.
Holy shit I didn't know Americans were that fucking arrogant. "Who needs a filter, we'll just never land anywhere dirty"