yeah yeah yeah electoral politics is ephemeral, we live under a two-party dictatorship of the bourgeoisie, whatever, it's still entertaining i'm posting this to /c/electoralism for a reason, we made a containment forum for horserace shit so this is where it's going
Biden has a polling lead with elderly voters, which is rare for a democrat! Think he can keep it up until the election? I have my doubts, but he might be able to, and if he does I bet he wins.
Probably. I don't see how it could reverse, especially with COVID-19.
Sorry but this is a really bad take, Biden's polling numbers peaked at double digits in early June at the start of the BLM protests and recent polls indicate that the lead has closed into the small single digits: anywhere between 3-7pts at this time. This lines up with polling for most milquetoast challengers to an incumbent, even an unpopular one. Biden is this cycles version of Kerry, he offers nothing and will only turn out the reliable DNC party base.
I think we are dealing with entirely different circumstances but we'll see