yeah yeah yeah electoral politics is ephemeral, we live under a two-party dictatorship of the bourgeoisie, whatever, it's still entertaining i'm posting this to /c/electoralism for a reason, we made a containment forum for horserace shit so this is where it's going
Biden has a polling lead with elderly voters, which is rare for a democrat! Think he can keep it up until the election? I have my doubts, but he might be able to, and if he does I bet he wins.
Maybe +1-3 pts. by the election. This doesn't matter though if you remember how the electoral college works though, as a lot of those boomers getting polled live in high pop states like CA, TX, or NY where votes don't count anyways. Trump will win like last time by running "to the left" of biden rhetorically like he did Clinton and the DNC would love another 4 years in opposition.
You think the regional voting preferences have split among the over 60s that much? Plausible, wonder if there's an easy way for us laypeople to prove it
I wouldn't say that. I'm speaking more in reference to the demography of DNC voters, who largely occupy highly populated states that proportionately grant a lower margin of electoral college votes than lower populated states in the interior. There's also voter supression due to the Robert Courts decisions made during the Obama years, and Trump's actions to accelerate the decline of the USPS as a means of stopping mail in ballots. Lastly, Dems only win high-turnout elections sicne the Republican base has always had a 90% approval rating of a Republican president, and votes for Republicans at the same rates. On the contrary, Democrats appeal to a broader, less reliable base that only turns out when the candidate is not running as a centrist. Obama's 2008 versus his 2012 voting share speaks a lot on this, and Biden isn't getting people to vote for him, notsomuch that they're voting "against Trump."
Never underestimate the DNC's capability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
Easily. All he has to do is not say anything. Trump already knows he lost the election after that first covid rally in Tulsa, which is why he's now trying to cancel the election.
Sorry but this is a really bad take, Biden's polling numbers peaked at double digits in early June at the start of the BLM protests and recent polls indicate that the lead has closed into the small single digits: anywhere between 3-7pts at this time. This lines up with polling for most milquetoast challengers to an incumbent, even an unpopular one. Biden is this cycles version of Kerry, he offers nothing and will only turn out the reliable DNC party base.
I think we are dealing with entirely different circumstances but we'll see