Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you'd get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!
Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It's a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.
The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.
idk i dont want to be a fangirl, but the guy is doing everything correctly. any secrecy he has is justified since it's his secret formula he wont share. everything seems in order. that swinging is part of the imprecision, if it changes from month to month, it changes day to day, by unpredictable amounts. you can only know by more or less what order of magnitude the swing could be, which is our imprecision i was talking about. a lot of people could change their mind in either diretion, but that's unlikely, which is why the peak remains where it is.
538 isnt particularly revolutionary, it just has a good record and reputation. plus, believe me but criticizing 538's record is really low hanging fruit for anyone wanting to make a paper