Have yall never played poker/thrown a dice/anything random? When he says libs can relax its because the ODDS of winning are in his favor, but they are still fucking odds. Trump can still roll a 6 and win. If trump wins a) if he predicted that biden would have won, you'd get angry. b) if he predicted trump would have won, thats a shitty prediction that has little basis in the data and even if he was right nobody would listen to a guy who guessed right by chance!!
Think that i win if a coin lands thrice on heads. It's a 12.5% chance i win. Would you bet for me? No. Would you be surprised if i win? Also no, i still had a chance.
The chances lie in the fact that many ppl will vote on a whim based on how they feel one particular day, and you cant know all the data or how reliable it is. He isnt covering his ass, he is acknowledging that he cannot know with utmost precision. Its not a political/emotional thing, its how math works.
Then his odds aren't wrong, that isn't what the model is predicting votes. It's predicting who gets more votes in actuality. Predicting what the recorded votes will be is a separate prediction and difficult because it's hard to know exactly what will happen
Then it would be predicting something that's literally impossible to verify. There is no "in actuality" without knowing the intents and situations of every single eligible voter in the state.
It's a completely useless prediction to make.
Who got more votes "in actuality" in Florida in 2000? Does "in actuality" take into account the people who accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan? How many people actually did that?
Polling is an attempt to figure this out. Polls have a margin of error but are generally accurate.
If votes aren't counted properly it's impossible to know. All we can do is estimate the actual count, and know the official count that gets reported.