My threat model threshold is about 500 copies per milliliter in the sewage. I wouldn't dispute anyone who had theirs as low as 200, or who was immune-compromised.
This is the county I talk about in another comment that is right next to Miami, and has just exceeded Miami's Omicron peak. Florida is monitoring 9 out of 67 counties and we weren't monitoring them before March. Unless you're in an area where more regions are being monitored than not, there's probably quite a few massive spikes that are just not being recorded. We started out in this thing with waves that were largely in sync and are now at a point where varied amounts of immunity timings have made it so that the areas we're not monitoring are probably at a considerably higher average than the areas we are. If you go state by state, you'll find a lot of spikes like these where lone counties had a super spreader event or something that put that them far higher than other counties monitored nearby. Honestly, I'm mostly just using Wastewater to tell when we're in big waves so I've got agitprop to try and convince people that covid isn't gone, but I wear a mask all the time because I'm in a massive monitoring blind spot and people around me have been coming down with covid even during the lulls.
I know I'm taking a risk, just like I am whenever I get in a personal automobile or interact with a stranger.
If masking didn't present any issue, we would have seen noticeable amounts of people doing it before the lockdowns. If/when I help establish an intentional community, I'll mask up all the time outside of it for the sake of keeping it as an immunological island.
I make a guess of whether it's above a certain likelihood that I'll come across someone infected in there, based on extrapolating from national and regional data.
If it looks like we're in a spike, I take more care to mask.
My threat model threshold is about 500 copies per milliliter in the sewage. I wouldn't dispute anyone who had theirs as low as 200, or who was immune-compromised.
I invite you to check what Monroe County did this summer.
-Jul 12th, 52 copies/ML
-Jul 19th 657 copies/ML
-Jul 26th 2.501 copies/ML
-Aug 9th 2023 copies/ML
-Aug 23rd 2067 copies/ML
-Aug 30th 4717 copies/ML
This is the county I talk about in another comment that is right next to Miami, and has just exceeded Miami's Omicron peak. Florida is monitoring 9 out of 67 counties and we weren't monitoring them before March. Unless you're in an area where more regions are being monitored than not, there's probably quite a few massive spikes that are just not being recorded. We started out in this thing with waves that were largely in sync and are now at a point where varied amounts of immunity timings have made it so that the areas we're not monitoring are probably at a considerably higher average than the areas we are. If you go state by state, you'll find a lot of spikes like these where lone counties had a super spreader event or something that put that them far higher than other counties monitored nearby. Honestly, I'm mostly just using Wastewater to tell when we're in big waves so I've got agitprop to try and convince people that covid isn't gone, but I wear a mask all the time because I'm in a massive monitoring blind spot and people around me have been coming down with covid even during the lulls.
I know I'm taking a risk, just like I am whenever I get in a personal automobile or interact with a stranger.
If masking didn't present any issue, we would have seen noticeable amounts of people doing it before the lockdowns. If/when I help establish an intentional community, I'll mask up all the time outside of it for the sake of keeping it as an immunological island.
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I make a guess of whether it's above a certain likelihood that I'll come across someone infected in there, based on extrapolating from national and regional data.
If it looks like we're in a spike, I take more care to mask.