The Israel Defense Forces have in recent weeks been instructed to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will conduct a military strike against Iran before President Trump leaves office, senior Israeli officials tell me.
The Israeli government instructed the IDF to undertake the preparations not because of any intelligence or assessment that Trump will order such a strike, but because senior Israeli officials anticipate “a very sensitive period” ahead of Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20.
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Senior Israeli officials tell me they expect Israel will get prior notice ahead of any U.S. strike against Iran. But they're concerned that won't be sufficient to fully prepare. Thus the order to the IDF to start taking preparatory steps under the assumption that such a scenario is possible.
How? Does Iran have anything to counter B-2 for example, or cruise missiles. Or if it comes to it nukes?
Iran wouldn’t abide by “conventional warfare”. They would use asymmetric and guerrilla warfare tactics to beat down the military. Look at Iraq post invasion insurgency, the quagmire in Afghanistan, the north Vietnamese, etc. also, Iran is extremely mountainous, which would make invasion from the north through Afghanistan damn near impossible, and through the south you’ll get heavy resistance and mountains still. The capital is in a valley essentially, surrounded by mountains where they could theoretically hold out there and attack if need be.
Cruise missiles aren’t that effective. Trumps strike against Syria a few years ago missed like everything they shot at or the targets were unoccupied.
In terms of nukes, I mean all options are on the table, but the reaction would cause world war 3 I think.
Edit- read this Millennium Challenge
Yeah I don't think actually occupying Iran would go any better than occupying Iraq (probably much worse) but the big question is whether an occupation is the aim. If, on the other hand, destruction and societal and economic collapse à la Libya is the aim then I think it's very achievable for the Pentagon. I've read about the exercise before but no one knows if a) Iran would employ the same strategy, b) employ it as efficiently and c) the US military has not learned anything from it it and updated it's doctrine accordingly. After all almost 2 decades have passed since and staff have come and went.
As for the last point in order to escalate into a "world war" there have to be roughly equal international opponents. Who would even be opposing US atrocities here besides Iran itself and possibly a few feeble non-state actors sponsored by Iran?