It's not a conspiracy angle. Blowback is a strategic component of USA strategy and likely part of Israel strategy as well.
There's 2 possibilities here:
Israel knew and let the blowback emerge for the purpose of justifying actions it has planned in response
Israel didn't know because Hamas' counter-intelligence is outperforming Israel intelligence
If the 1st hypothesis is true, then we will all watch in horror as the Hamas action enters a kettle and Israel executes a well thought out brutal counter.
If the 1st hypothesis is true, then we would not expect to see many conflicts play out simultaneously as managing volume of blowback is likely important to reducing the total number of fronts to manage.
However, if the 2nd hypothesis is true, then that means USA intelligence is also underperforming and that means 5 Eyes intelligence is also underperforming, because they all work together.
If that's true, then what we would expect to see are a number of failed gambits on the side of the West coupled with a number of successful gambits from anti-Western groups. Those gambits should not be met with clearly well-planned counters.
The evidence we have predominantly supports the 2nd hypothesis. Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems to have not been exactly what the USA expected. The USA attempted to open multiple fronts against Russia in the months following the invasion and none of them materialized.
Then we saw the coup in Niger. Now we see Palestine.
When we couple that with the amount of spy hunting China has been doing successfully. It feels like there's been a sea change in the international intelligence power balance.
It's not a conspiracy angle. Blowback is a strategic component of USA strategy and likely part of Israel strategy as well.
There's 2 possibilities here:
If the 1st hypothesis is true, then we will all watch in horror as the Hamas action enters a kettle and Israel executes a well thought out brutal counter.
If the 1st hypothesis is true, then we would not expect to see many conflicts play out simultaneously as managing volume of blowback is likely important to reducing the total number of fronts to manage.
However, if the 2nd hypothesis is true, then that means USA intelligence is also underperforming and that means 5 Eyes intelligence is also underperforming, because they all work together.
If that's true, then what we would expect to see are a number of failed gambits on the side of the West coupled with a number of successful gambits from anti-Western groups. Those gambits should not be met with clearly well-planned counters.
The evidence we have predominantly supports the 2nd hypothesis. Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems to have not been exactly what the USA expected. The USA attempted to open multiple fronts against Russia in the months following the invasion and none of them materialized.
Then we saw the coup in Niger. Now we see Palestine.
When we couple that with the amount of spy hunting China has been doing successfully. It feels like there's been a sea change in the international intelligence power balance.