I'm going to try a little bit of an effort post just to see if I am understanding this correctly. Also it might help answer why people are still paying attention to this when it's clearly "over."
There are 100 people in a room and each holds 5 shares worth $100 each. They all bought in when the price was $200 per share. Some are getting nervous and want to sell so they don't completely lose their money. The market opens and 10 of the 100 people step up to sell their shares. They each as $100 per share since that's the current market price. The buyers, who are the other people in the room, don't want to buy at $100 if they can help it. They want the cheapest price. So the haggling begins. One buyer offers $99 per share. One of the sellers, who sees an opportunity to unload, takes it. So they sell a share at $99. Now the rest of the sellers realize they probably have to accept a lower price if they want out. The buyers realize there is room for a lower price. Maybe a few more shares exchange at $99 but then the buyers start asking $98. Now the sellers must again accept what people are willing to pay or just keep holding. But they want out immediately so they keep taking lower prices. 50 (5 shares from 10 people) shares have exchanged hands and the current price is now $90.
This is bad, right? Not exactly. The price is only about the current market value. It's not about value. And the reason the price dropped so steeply so quick is because only 10 people out of a 100 sold their shares. The number of shares in the room hasn't changed. It's not even representative of the action in the room. The vast majority of the people are holding. But the price only reflects what's actually being bought/sold, it measures the action of buying/selling not the action of holding. Therefore buyers getting a good deal on newly available shares makes the measurement go down. Trying to judge what's happening in the room from price alone won't tell you anything. If you just pay attention to that, you would think the world is on fire and everyone is selling. You have to also pay attention to volume.
10 people driving the price down $10 isn't a big deal. If 90 people drove the price down, something is going on, people are trying to get rid of their shares and nobody is really in control of the price. It's just going down because of normal supply/demand commerce. People are still holding.
Let's say a new person walks into the room (now there's 90 holders 10 people with 0 shares, and 1 new person). They are a big buyer and they want to buy everyone's remaining shares. The price is $90 so they feel like they're getting a deal. They offer $90 per share and want 500 shares. Well the holders look at each other and decide not to sell. They bought in at $200 and aren't willing to let it go for cheap. The haggling begins and the buyer works their offers up to $150 per share. Some people cave and the buyer partially fills their order. The price doesn't go down like it did with the first 10 people who sold because the remaining people are still holding out for $200. The buyer must either give up or keep raising the offer. Some holders drop out at $175. Some stay in. Finally the buyer finishes filling their order at $205 per share. The trading day is over.
Of course real life is more complicated because people aren't just buying and selling. There is also a series of bets going on parallel to these simple trades. Some are betting on what the price will do (which, again, reflects the action in the room). And those bets end up affecting the price as well because people are aware of them and will strategize sales/acquisitions around them. But I think it helps to strip away that stuff and look at the very basic (capitalist) economics of it. It shows that price alone is not an indicator of what's happening. The stock can dramatically fall or rise in price while the majority of what's happening is nothing.
This is why celebrating line go up or down shouldn't be serious. I remember last spring we were laughing at line go down, but then months later it reaches all-time highs. The present is ephemeral. You have to look at other factors like volume.
The volume of GME is still low compared to the first rise. Overall, if I am reading my chart correctly, the majority of people have bought and held than have sold. Regardless of what the price is doing, most people aren't doing anything. The majority of what has been bought hasn't been sold, even with the price dropping so harshly. What does this mean? Well it's like the room example. The price is reflecting a minority of trades. The example is very tidy because thousands of people aren't involved. What we're seeing is people selling off tiny bits, while the majority holds. In real life you're never going to get everyone to act in unison, but as long as the majority holds out, they will be paid when a buyer walks into the room.
If you believe that the major players here are what counts, and random redditors aren't driving this, then the big boys haven't sold either. They own the majority of the shares in the room, so why didn't they dump everything at $400? I don't know. I assume they know something I don't because they have dozens of PhDs working for them and AI and whatever else. If by some chance it's not big firms that hold the majority here, but the random redditors, then oh boy. That means the holders are actually in control as long as they hold.
I think it's important to note I'm not even talking about shorts. Forget the shorts. Just look at the most basic supply/demand of the situation. The holders don't even need shorts to be in play for them to win. They just have to hold until a buyer offers an outrageous price. The shorts are only about expediency, they guarantee a buyer has to emerge soon in order to buy back all these shares they're holding. But without the short, this turns into a long play. Unless Gamestop goes out of business, it should pay off in the long run. Or if Gamestop creates new shares and that dilutes the price.
Of course it's not going to work perfectly. People will get tired of waiting for the messiah and sell. That will affect the overall strategy. It may make the final offer lower. By how much? IDK. If you got in at $400 you're probably screwed. It also depends on what happens with covid. Gamestop wanted to turn into gamer cafes last I heard. That's not going to happen if everyone is too afraid of coofing to death. So that could potentially ruin it or make it stretch even longer.
I'm not saying that continuing to hold is a good strategy or that people should. Just that even if you just look at the most basic grade-school economics of the situation, there's something still here. It doesn't even have to rely on shorts being covered by a desperate hedge. I just hope the dinguses at r/wsb haven't focused so much on the short situation that they will suddenly dump if the short squeeze shit doesn't take off this week. By the end of 2021 though, the holders could force the price back up.
TLDR: To check the volume for yourself, go into your trading app, look at the volume chart, add up all the green bars' lengths then compare to the total red bars' lengths. Most people have not sold. These drops are only a measure of a small amount of the total action.
This isn't cope either. I'm not saying this will all pay off and everything is okay. I'm just saying what the chart is saying. If this is over then people should be dumping their shares to get out of it and reduce risk. But they're not. And if we're all wrong, then nobody is. Because acting as if we aren't wrong is what's going to end up driving the price back up eventually, regardless of shorts.
I'm going to try a little bit of an effort post just to see if I am understanding this correctly. Also it might help answer why people are still paying attention to this when it's clearly "over."
There are 100 people in a room and each holds 5 shares worth $100 each. They all bought in when the price was $200 per share. Some are getting nervous and want to sell so they don't completely lose their money. The market opens and 10 of the 100 people step up to sell their shares. They each as $100 per share since that's the current market price. The buyers, who are the other people in the room, don't want to buy at $100 if they can help it. They want the cheapest price. So the haggling begins. One buyer offers $99 per share. One of the sellers, who sees an opportunity to unload, takes it. So they sell a share at $99. Now the rest of the sellers realize they probably have to accept a lower price if they want out. The buyers realize there is room for a lower price. Maybe a few more shares exchange at $99 but then the buyers start asking $98. Now the sellers must again accept what people are willing to pay or just keep holding. But they want out immediately so they keep taking lower prices. 50 (5 shares from 10 people) shares have exchanged hands and the current price is now $90.
This is bad, right? Not exactly. The price is only about the current market value. It's not about value. And the reason the price dropped so steeply so quick is because only 10 people out of a 100 sold their shares. The number of shares in the room hasn't changed. It's not even representative of the action in the room. The vast majority of the people are holding. But the price only reflects what's actually being bought/sold, it measures the action of buying/selling not the action of holding. Therefore buyers getting a good deal on newly available shares makes the measurement go down. Trying to judge what's happening in the room from price alone won't tell you anything. If you just pay attention to that, you would think the world is on fire and everyone is selling. You have to also pay attention to volume.
10 people driving the price down $10 isn't a big deal. If 90 people drove the price down, something is going on, people are trying to get rid of their shares and nobody is really in control of the price. It's just going down because of normal supply/demand commerce. People are still holding.
Let's say a new person walks into the room (now there's 90 holders 10 people with 0 shares, and 1 new person). They are a big buyer and they want to buy everyone's remaining shares. The price is $90 so they feel like they're getting a deal. They offer $90 per share and want 500 shares. Well the holders look at each other and decide not to sell. They bought in at $200 and aren't willing to let it go for cheap. The haggling begins and the buyer works their offers up to $150 per share. Some people cave and the buyer partially fills their order. The price doesn't go down like it did with the first 10 people who sold because the remaining people are still holding out for $200. The buyer must either give up or keep raising the offer. Some holders drop out at $175. Some stay in. Finally the buyer finishes filling their order at $205 per share. The trading day is over.
Of course real life is more complicated because people aren't just buying and selling. There is also a series of bets going on parallel to these simple trades. Some are betting on what the price will do (which, again, reflects the action in the room). And those bets end up affecting the price as well because people are aware of them and will strategize sales/acquisitions around them. But I think it helps to strip away that stuff and look at the very basic (capitalist) economics of it. It shows that price alone is not an indicator of what's happening. The stock can dramatically fall or rise in price while the majority of what's happening is nothing.
This is why celebrating line go up or down shouldn't be serious. I remember last spring we were laughing at line go down, but then months later it reaches all-time highs. The present is ephemeral. You have to look at other factors like volume.
The volume of GME is still low compared to the first rise. Overall, if I am reading my chart correctly, the majority of people have bought and held than have sold. Regardless of what the price is doing, most people aren't doing anything. The majority of what has been bought hasn't been sold, even with the price dropping so harshly. What does this mean? Well it's like the room example. The price is reflecting a minority of trades. The example is very tidy because thousands of people aren't involved. What we're seeing is people selling off tiny bits, while the majority holds. In real life you're never going to get everyone to act in unison, but as long as the majority holds out, they will be paid when a buyer walks into the room.
If you believe that the major players here are what counts, and random redditors aren't driving this, then the big boys haven't sold either. They own the majority of the shares in the room, so why didn't they dump everything at $400? I don't know. I assume they know something I don't because they have dozens of PhDs working for them and AI and whatever else. If by some chance it's not big firms that hold the majority here, but the random redditors, then oh boy. That means the holders are actually in control as long as they hold.
I think it's important to note I'm not even talking about shorts. Forget the shorts. Just look at the most basic supply/demand of the situation. The holders don't even need shorts to be in play for them to win. They just have to hold until a buyer offers an outrageous price. The shorts are only about expediency, they guarantee a buyer has to emerge soon in order to buy back all these shares they're holding. But without the short, this turns into a long play. Unless Gamestop goes out of business, it should pay off in the long run. Or if Gamestop creates new shares and that dilutes the price.
Of course it's not going to work perfectly. People will get tired of waiting for the messiah and sell. That will affect the overall strategy. It may make the final offer lower. By how much? IDK. If you got in at $400 you're probably screwed. It also depends on what happens with covid. Gamestop wanted to turn into gamer cafes last I heard. That's not going to happen if everyone is too afraid of coofing to death. So that could potentially ruin it or make it stretch even longer.
I'm not saying that continuing to hold is a good strategy or that people should. Just that even if you just look at the most basic grade-school economics of the situation, there's something still here. It doesn't even have to rely on shorts being covered by a desperate hedge. I just hope the dinguses at r/wsb haven't focused so much on the short situation that they will suddenly dump if the short squeeze shit doesn't take off this week. By the end of 2021 though, the holders could force the price back up.
TLDR: To check the volume for yourself, go into your trading app, look at the volume chart, add up all the green bars' lengths then compare to the total red bars' lengths. Most people have not sold. These drops are only a measure of a small amount of the total action.
This isn't cope either. I'm not saying this will all pay off and everything is okay. I'm just saying what the chart is saying. If this is over then people should be dumping their shares to get out of it and reduce risk. But they're not. And if we're all wrong, then nobody is. Because acting as if we aren't wrong is what's going to end up driving the price back up eventually, regardless of shorts.