This is an interesting discussion, and you are (as always) very well informed, so I'd like to keep exploring this.
There’s nothing blind luck about it. Either he was foolish enough to make a decision to go to war with Iran
I don't view brinksmanship as a game where one party can unilaterally decide to stop playing at any time. There are all sorts of human mistakes, equipment failures, or accidents that can cause the situation to spiral out of control even when neither side intends to escalate. In a normal situation, it's easier to navigate crises like the 1983 nuclear false alarm incident, or the 1988 shoot down of Iran Air 655, or a submarine sinking. How would those crises have turned out if they had occurred in a situation like our aggression against Iran? Maybe they still turn out alright, but maybe we go to war instead. When you're on the brink of a conflict even a little nudge can push you over, and that nudge can come from anywhere. Notably (as was possibly the case in the Iran Air 655 shoot down), that nudge can come from some overly-aggressive commander on the ground. How many of those has the U.S. military churned out?
The Russian roulette analogy wasn't adequate. A better analogy is lining two armies up across a field from each other, having them load their guns and point them at each other, and then waiting to see who blinks. At that point whoever is in nominal control of each side is not in full control, even of their own side. Maybe someone gets jittery and pulls a trigger. Maybe you get an accidental discharge. Maybe someone who's really spoiling for a fight pulls a trigger intentionally. In any of those situations a battle would break out and there would be a lot of killing before anyone could stop it.
in which case the Empire collapses almost immediately given the numerous war games that show US getting it’s ass handed to it
The U.S. empire didn't collapse after losses in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. I don't see why it would collapse with a loss in Iran, much less collapse immediately. War with Iran would really be uncharted territory -- as you point out, it would be the largest, most advanced country we've fought since WWII -- so I don't think we can draw any neat conclusions from it.
Three points on that reading of the Cuban Missile Crisis, although it's not the main topic here:
Characterizing it as capitulation on the part of the Soviets omits the fact that the U.S. agreed to remove first-strike nukes from Turkey in exchange for the USSR removing its missiles from Cuba. That article mentions this but (without support) claims the U.S. planned to retire its Turkey nukes soon anyways; without some evidence of this, one could easily read that claim from the U.S. as ass covering.
Primarily blaming Kennedy for Vietnam runs counter to most assessments of the war. It was Johnson who really escalated the fighting, and there's a credible argument that Kennedy planned to withdraw after the 1964 election. Certainly Kennedy had plenty of responsibility for the war, but the phrasing of that part makes it read more like a narrative constructed in hindsight than a logical progression of events as they unfolded.
I'm also reminded of Parenti's "anything the Soviets did would be construed against them" point. Sure, maybe further brinksmanship in Cuba wouldn't have led to nuclear war, and would have caused the genocidal anti-communists in the U.S. to back down. But it also could have been used by that crowd as evidence of the imminence of the communist threat, and as a sign that even more aggressive opposition was needed.
This is an interesting discussion, and you are (as always) very well informed, so I'd like to keep exploring this.
I don't view brinksmanship as a game where one party can unilaterally decide to stop playing at any time. There are all sorts of human mistakes, equipment failures, or accidents that can cause the situation to spiral out of control even when neither side intends to escalate. In a normal situation, it's easier to navigate crises like the 1983 nuclear false alarm incident, or the 1988 shoot down of Iran Air 655, or a submarine sinking. How would those crises have turned out if they had occurred in a situation like our aggression against Iran? Maybe they still turn out alright, but maybe we go to war instead. When you're on the brink of a conflict even a little nudge can push you over, and that nudge can come from anywhere. Notably (as was possibly the case in the Iran Air 655 shoot down), that nudge can come from some overly-aggressive commander on the ground. How many of those has the U.S. military churned out?
The Russian roulette analogy wasn't adequate. A better analogy is lining two armies up across a field from each other, having them load their guns and point them at each other, and then waiting to see who blinks. At that point whoever is in nominal control of each side is not in full control, even of their own side. Maybe someone gets jittery and pulls a trigger. Maybe you get an accidental discharge. Maybe someone who's really spoiling for a fight pulls a trigger intentionally. In any of those situations a battle would break out and there would be a lot of killing before anyone could stop it.
The U.S. empire didn't collapse after losses in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. I don't see why it would collapse with a loss in Iran, much less collapse immediately. War with Iran would really be uncharted territory -- as you point out, it would be the largest, most advanced country we've fought since WWII -- so I don't think we can draw any neat conclusions from it.
Three points on that reading of the Cuban Missile Crisis, although it's not the main topic here: