There's a ton of information coming out from a bunch of different sources and it's difficult to keep track of who's said what and who has evidence of what. This thread is to keep track of who's making what claims, who has what evidence, and discussion surrounding those.
For top-level comments, please separate into two categories:
Evidence (videos, facts, circumstantial evidence, etc.) that we can validate, invalidate, or provide supporting sources for
Claims (IDF, Hamas, Western media, etc.) that we can prove or disprove using current evidence
=== 2023-10-19 ===
It's established fact that Israel was operating aircraft near the hospital, that Israel was striking targets near the hospital, that Israel had indicated that they would strike the hospital, that Israel had striked the hospital in the past, and that Israel had targeted multiple hospital staff in the days leading up to the strike.
It's currently up to debate, but many indications suggest that Israel's message has changed multiple times. The initial claim was that the attack was on Hamas operatives within the hospital. The claim afterward was that this was a Hamas misfire (using demonstrably falsified audio evidence).
The videos show that a single large explosion triggered whatever happened, not a sequence of smaller explosions or secondary detonations. The video circulating of a Hamas rocket "misfire" is more indicative of a MANPADS launch given multiple comparable flight paths from other MANPADS. It's a clear usage of a multi-pulse rocket motor, something Hamas does not have domestic capability for but does have access to through Iranian MANPADS. An Iranian Misagh-2 fires a missile with less than 2kg of explosives and less than 20kg of total weight.
At this stage, my most likely conclusion is that the damage was the result of an airburst bomb.
Rewatching the video, I'm fairly convinced it's the same munition used for most of the ground strikes. The hospital seemed to catch aflame afterwards (lending credence to the theory that the cars had gasoline which ignited) but the initial flash is pretty unmistakable.
If anyone's feeling up to it, I'm fairly sure you could compare the relative exposures in the explosions. You'd have to correct for distance, distortion, etc. but usually live cameras don't autocorrect exposure or fps so you have a pretty good baseline reading.
Nah you can't, they'll be bright enough to saturate the sensor.
At the point of impact, not at a distance away from it. Light is a function of distance from the origin... Right?
Yes, it is, but until the fireball is smaller than a pixel, you will see a reduction in the number of pixels illuminated, and then a reduction in exposure. And I'd wager that for a sizeable bomb it will take a while for that reduction in exposure to mean you stop clipping the sensor, especially at night with the ISO dialed up.
You can also see smoke plumes in the background near the hospital before the hospital is struck, and more of them start rising from the continued strikes.