CanYouFeelItMrKrabs [any, he/him] to Main • 4 years ago538 gives Trump a 30% chance of winningexternal-linkmessage-square149 fedilinkarrow-up1109file-text
arrow-up1109external-link538 gives Trump a 30% chance of winningCanYouFeelItMrKrabs [any, he/him] to Main • 4 years agomessage-square149 Commentsfedilinkfile-text
minus-squarejack [he/him, comrade/them]hexbear10·4 years agoI don't think 30% = "He'll never win". It's probably more like "He'll win 30% of the time". link
minus-squarespectre [he/him]hexbear11·4 years agoYep, 538 gave him a 30pct chance in 2016 too, and as much as a dope Nate and Co are at interpreting their numbers, I think they were accurate then, and might be now (though there are more factors at play in 2020. link
I don't think 30% = "He'll never win". It's probably more like "He'll win 30% of the time".
Yep, 538 gave him a 30pct chance in 2016 too, and as much as a dope Nate and Co are at interpreting their numbers, I think they were accurate then, and might be now (though there are more factors at play in 2020.