Thread image created by yours truly, depicting Iran and Pakistan very impolitely not asking whether America, on the other side of the planet, is okay with them transporting gas around.
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has long been obstructed by American involvement in the region. Iran completed its section of the pipeline quite quickly, but Pakistan has been unable to finish its construction for a decade due to the fear of falling afoul of American sanctions on Iran. The United States has repeatedly tried to pressure Pakistan to give up the project and obtain gas from other countries instead. Recent articles on the state of the pipeline are contradictory, with some stating that Iran or Pakistan have given up on the pipeline while American sanctions persist. Pakistani officials reject this framing, saying that they are still working with Iran to try and get the project completed somehow. Nonetheless, Iran is becoming increasingly frustrated and is threatening a legal battle and a demand for reparations.
Meanwhile, back in Niger, the $13 billion under-construction pipeline connecting Nigeria and other West African countries to Spain and Italy will likely face delays due to the sanctions applied by the West and ECOWAS on Niger. Those following the European gas fiasco will be aware that while Spain and Italy have been impacted by the energy crisis, they have been very busy making deals with African countries to replace their Russian gas, and thus stand a better chance than Germany of making it through the crisis with their industries somewhat intact. The coup has thrown a wrench into their plans, though they can still obtain some gas from northern African countries.
And, last but not least, America tried for years to stop the construction of the Nord Stream pipelines between Germany and Russia, which culminated in them deciding to blow them up late last year.
All in all - the United States really does not like it when countries build up energy infrastructure and gain some independence from them.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
This week's first update is here in the comments.
This week's second update is here in the comments.
This week's third update is here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
The bulletins site is down.
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can.
Resources For Understanding The War
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
Lukashenko, to Ukrainian journalist, emphasis mine:
Lukashenko: "I've drawn this map specifically for you. Russia will crush your personnel and hardware over there. Those motivated, ideologically strong, Nazis as they are called, those ideologically strong men are no longer around. All of them have died already. Who is fighting here, then? Those you can catch in the streets and bring here. They are not prepared. Well, and a bit of military personnel. They will not be able to defeat this machine. Russia has changed. At present, Russia has cutting edge weapons at the front. There are plenty of drones now. Well, it is a totally different army now. And the most dangerous thing... I don't know whether I should tell you or not..."
Reporter: "Please do!"
L: "They have 250,000 volunteers! Russia has 250,000! Who are not at the front yet!"
R: "In reserve now?"
L: "Volunteers! They have been trained and they are in reserve. Do you understand how many people 250,000 are? Russia has fewer people at the front now. So they are staying on the defensive. Not because they cannot advance. They don't have to! And you keep walking like people who have had too much drugs and alcohol. You walk [with assault rifles] at the ready like German Nazis in movies. You walk towards these barricades. But you cannot even reach them. We can see it, and it is so. You cannot even reach the minefields. You are just getting slaughtered in thousands. Your counteroffensive cost 45,000 in dead and maimed. 45,000! So they are on the defensive. Your losses are 1 to 8. 1 to 8 at the front line. And 250,000 in reserve with cutting edge hardware. You will be crushed. Then they will do what you and your leadership fear the most. They will cut you off by advancing towards Moldova, towards Transdniestria. What will you do after that? And Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by Americans, they will cut off the western regions. You will have only this little bit left, if any at all. This is what will happen to you. And the state, the Ukraine you and I know, will cease to me. Our native land. Yours and mine."
R: "Has this history been determined? What you are saying now..."
L: "If you don't stop now, it will happen! If you don't start negotiations now. Russia suggests it. You don't want it? Well, if you don't want it, we don't need it! Russia is powerful enough. No West will help you in this regard. You have to take your head into your hands and act on the basis of reality. Act in the interests of this huge and beautiful territory. The West is already starting to understand that nothing will come out of it. Ukraine will not be able to survive even with the West's aid."
How is Lukashenkos posting that powerful.
I assume he gave this little speech while insisting that the reporter munch on some sort of raw root vegetable.
Now you're just making me want to interview
Potatoes
He’s been reading the news thread but keeps getting banned for sectarianism
God how I hope
is right about this
Most of Azov died in Mariupol it is true.
But all of them? No that is factualy wrong. Some of their leadership was taken prisoner, some ended up in Turkey and were recently given back by Erdgogan which caused quite a bit of friction and outrage among the pro-Russian side, while others were exchanged with other prisoners by Russia themselves. This was a long time ago relatively speaking, summer last year.
The far right/Azov recruiting machine lets call it the pre-2022 buildup infrastructure also no longer exists, realisticaly everyone that is committed enough to Ukrainian nationalism is already in the army and very clearly everyone that doesn't is either laying low/running away or regularly have to literaly fight off the recruiters, you see these videos very often too.
Ultimately I think Lukashenko was referring to that very professional post-2014 Azov army trained by NATO. As I said yes most of them are already dead or disabled, and Ukraine clearly wasn't able to replace them in terms of skill/training quality.
But the bigger picture of Nazism in Ukraine is very far from over, I mean I think it is even silly to suggest it honestly, just go grab any of the random Ukrainian gov officials I posted about in the past, Podolyak, that other recent "Asians lack humanity" bit whoever said that, Ukraine is full of it and it is not some "part" of the government. It is literally central to it, the obsession with Crimea is an ideological choice etc.
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The militant armed nazis are dead/dying on the frontlines like azov and kraken. But fascism is widespread, like in Nazi Germany, unlike in Nazi Germany however, the left-opposition are the Russians and the DNR/LNR.
Azov Brigade returns to eastern front line from The Kyyyyyiv "Independent"
Heavy losses?
Heavy ammunition losses.
Was Lukashenko Z Poster?
Oh that dude was great. I miss him.
So what are the odds of Poland actually invading western Ukraine? It seems to me like Russia is slowly and irrevocably advance west towards Moldova, as Lukashenko said. Ukraine will become a landlocked nation; I'm certain of this.
I'm a lot less certain of Poland's intentions, largely because I haven't really been looking into it. Are they excited to carve up another nation for a change or what?
It's dependent on too many factors, many of which we have no real idea about, to give informed opinions on it. The fact that Lukashenko and Putin are saying that they think that Poland might go for it is very notable though. Emphasis on "are saying that they think", because there's (at least) three possibilities here: a) they don't know one way or another but might suspect it and thus might be trying to signal to Poland's leaders that they know they might be thinking about it and are prepared to respond, b) they have actual intelligence that Poland's leadership is planning something and are trying to dissuade their plans (putting nukes in Belarus probably helps), or c) they have intelligence that Poland isn't thinking about it but Russia and Belarus are planning some 5D chess move where Ukraine has to keep forces on the northern border just in case Russia decides to send their troops and/or Wagner out towards northwestern Ukraine.
Damn. It's a wildcard that may not even exist. I wonder how the state propaganda would spin it
Polish elite has been clamoring for the restoration of the PLC since the 19th century. Sans the soviet times, they will jump at any opportunity to get back Lwow.
Lwow is a Ukrainian Nationalist hotbed now. Although I won't be surprised if they want to join Poland to get validated as European or something.
Always has been, didn't stop Poland from trying. However, I think there will be a 9/11 by Ukranian nationalists on polish soil anyway. There is lota bad blood between the two nations.
Coalition forces trying to "stabilize" and "peace-keep" in West Ukraine as Azov-Qaeda wages a guerilla war against everyone, including themselves.
Ten million bombs dropped by UN planes, somehow less than 0 civilian casualties
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its sectarian. The poles are roman catholic. While ukranians are orthodox. Antisemitism may also play apart since poland used to be very tolerant of jews and employed many as beurocrats when they ocupied ukraine back in the plc days.
“Ukrainian Nationalism” is fake and was always a western import into Galicia from Poland and Germany. “Ukrainian Nationalists” are better called western compradors. The Galician fascists hate the population of Ukraine for being asiatic slavs
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Right now, not so much. Such an operation would require at least a month of serious military buildup. Considering that the Poles might have to go up against a Wagner-cum-Russian Army detachment (thanks for letting me say that) invading southwards, make that two months.
There would be a lot of public bickering between NATO and Russia in that time and Germany and France probably intervening diplomatically. The European public would probably be against it since this is getting very serious then. At least it would be in their interest to do so, lol, not so sure about Annalena and her braindead colleagues.
Cum detachment
It won’t be seen as an invasion in the west. It will be seen as a joint expeditionary stabilizing operation invited in by Ukraine or something similar. They just won’t leave. It will be like Kosovo or South Korea
It sounds kind of like Lukashenko, acting as a proxy for Russia, is coping and begging for negotiations, but I think his "threat" is completely serious. Remember how Russia was constantly asking for negotiations before the initial invasion?
Idk, I read this as Lukashenko once again, being unable to act professional and civil when talking to the West and just going on a rant about how much he wants to see them fail
Dude just wants to let his anger out and be real, seems like he hates realpolitik, even towards his allies tbh lol
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He’s too based for his own good
The man is terrifying lmao I love it
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I love Luka. Probably top 5 global leaders in pure entertainment value
And this is before Luka goes in personally to spank zelensky