1. The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders

  2. Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah

  3. Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose

These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.

Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?

  • showmustgo [he/him, comrade/them]
    ·
    9 months ago

    Rapidly crumbling international support

    Could you elaborate on that? I thought the international community was rallying behind them. Won't the US oriented part of the world do whatever the US asks in order to defend their "unsinkable aircraft carrier"?

    • jack [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      9 months ago

      The US Federal government isn't the entire world. Look at EU member countries like Croatia and Ireland increasingly coming out in favor of Palestine/Gaza. Arabic countries Israel had been normalizing with are withdrawing support. The global south is standing firmly against Israel. And even in the global north, popular sentiment is quickly turning in favor of Palestine.

      Maybe I'm insufficiently cynical for Hexbear here.

      • tocopherol@lemmy.dbzer0.com
        ·
        9 months ago

        I've seen people compare the media coverage of this to propaganda before around the Iraq war, but I feel like it's already much less one-sided than the calls for invasion were then. I read a Guardian article that made it very clear how horrific Israel's response has been, and how their treatment of Palestine has been horrible for years. For a major source it was about as pro-Palestine as I could imagine them right now. Even on Reddit, I was browsing some comment sections and there was surprisingly humane discussion about the issue.

      • ZWQbpkzl [none/use name]
        ·
        9 months ago

        Since when was Croatia or Ireland a critical part of Israel support network? The global south has been fairly uniformly against Israel for decades.

        And even in the global north, popular sentiment is quickly turning in favor of Palestine.

        I have no idea how correct that is or not because the press and halls of power have fully closed rank around Israel. Popular support for Israel might be dropping and once they invade it will almost certainly drop more. But who knows if anything will come of it.