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The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
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Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
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Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose
These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.
Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?
Gaza is not only dense but well-defended. They have networks of tunnels dug under the city and extending out of Gaza. Fighters can disappear an IOF soldier in 10 seconds in their tunnels and you'll never see him again. The last time they tried to enter, in 2014, one IOF soldier came out of it describing the experience like so: It was hell. Everything you touched could explode against you. Everyone you see could pull a weapon and shoot you as soon as you turn your head. And there's lots of people. You move step by step, as if in the dark, and just hope you make it out alive.
Honestly a land invasion of Gaza might be their nail in the coffin. This is where they do not have superiority. They can bomb Gaza all they want, but they can't invade it and succeed. Both times they've tried it was a colossal defeat for them.
Compound that with the fact that the IOF is a serious paper tiger. They can claim they're the most disciplined army in the Middle East or whatever as much as they want, but video footage shows an army in disarray, shooting at their own, not practising the most basic amount of safety. Remember the video from a few years ago of an IOF soldier picking up a flag someone planted on the Gaza border fence and just casually bringing it up to his mates before it exploded in his hands? All they know is to terrorize civilians, once the civilians start shooting back they don't know what to do.
They can claim they're the most disciplined army in the Middle East or whatever as much as they want, but video footage shows an army in disarray, shooting at their own, not practising the most basic amount of safety
Breaking news: Conscripts make shitty soldiers
Thats going to be such a cursed image once the Azov reaches their logical end in their mujahideen story
It will feel so nostalgic by the time he's gone full government-in-exile from a winecave in DC, making endless press releases that nobody bothers to circulate condemning the administrator of the Polish occupation forces for not giving air support to the Sons of Azov in their Bay of Pigs tribute act against Crimea.
Compound that with the fact that the IOF is a serious paper tiger. They can claim they're the most disciplined army in the Middle East or whatever as much as they want, but video footage shows an army in disarray, shooting at their own, not practising the most basic amount of safety. Remember the video from a few years ago of an IOF soldier picking up a flag someone planted on the Gaza border fence and just casually bringing it up to his mates before it exploded in his hands? All they know is to terrorize civilians, once the civilians start shooting back they don't know what to do.
The fact that several Zionist military facilities were overrun by Hamas on the first day in a state of complete surprise speaks a lot to this. Any half competent military should have sentries, patrols, etc. The fact that the Zionists were just sleeping and completely dependent on their alarm system is wild to me.
I think that was also surprising to Hamas. They may have just planned on holding a few soldiers so they can have leverage in negotiation, and expected a lot more resistance. Because well, wouldn't you?
If I was about to paraglide into Israel, I would definitely assume I was going to become a martyr from an anti-air missile. It makes a lot of sense why some people think Israel let the incursion happen.
IDF tiktok influencer finding out that hitting the griddy means nothing when you have an entire block opening fire on you and throwing petrol bombs.
Look, I signed up for being sexy on the internet, not this war and getting shot at shit
I don't know shit but from casually checking the news mega that seems to be the general sentiment. What I don't get is wouldn't this ground invasion be a completely unforced error on Israel's part? Why are they even considering it?
Netanyahu's entire network of graft and political control is now more unstable than a house of cards, and the only thing that could possibly prop it back it up is a military victory over Hamas.
Bombing refugee columns isn't enough, they need boots on the ground.
I'd say the right wing government needs, NEEDS, to play the "military strong man" role.
Yeah. Fascism is in effect. They're not necessarily making rational decisions and can't necessarily assess the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. The rhetoric is gneocide - At least some Israelis in high places want to exterminate the Palestinians or drive them out of Gaza entirely. Plus, as others have mentioned, Bibi fucked up and might launch an invasion for political reasons.
similar to the invasion of the USSR by the Nazis. It was a stupid move in all metrics, but the fascism made it impossible to take any other course of action.
May this end like Stalingrad, with the fascists losing
Zionists are fascists and fascists care very little for human life, even that of their fellow fascists.
Zionists have already said about hostages being killed: "You trust Hamas that they weren't already killed? They were dead as soon as they were captured." So I would guess that any captives in Palestine do not have a good chance of being returned.
Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose
Absolutely, there was a time, I forgot when, that Israel tried occupying the Gaza strip, and they were promptly driven out like the vermin they are. Thats why they rely on long range heavy munitions to genocide Palestine, because they would get obliterated in a "fair fight" with the people whose homeland they are invading.
All true, but I would add one more that's probably the most important factor:
Israel is deeply divided. The Sword of al-Quds in 2021 exposed massive fault lines that only deepen two years later. Plenty of people who aren't Palestinians loathe Netanyahu for various reasons. This division means the risk of mutinies. Once the body bags start coming, many soldiers will either refuse to go in or straight up mutiny. And once the military mutinies, it's game over. Netanyahu understands this very real possibility, which is why they're just bombing Gaza back to the stone age. But the bombs and missiles will eventually run out and they'll have to enter in Gaza one way or another.
mandatory military service also means that the losses won't be confined to volunteers or military families. Support for war drops off pretty quick when it's your sons and daughters being shot at (except in the families which define their lifestyle around military service which in my opinion is a sickening human sacrifice ritual where people effectively sell their own children)
- The IDF might spread itself too thin but I'm not quite sure that's a concern for them.
- "Their rapidly crumbling international support" Let me know if Turkey or Egypt is included in that claim.
- Is the correct reason.
Gaza is one of the densest urban areas in the world and is currently occupied by a demonstrably well organized and committed defenders, who have had decades to prepare. On top of that, IDF infantry was proven to be surprisingly ineffective in 2006. Conventional military wisdom is to level the city to the ground, like Raqqa or Aleppo, instead of doing an infantry invasion. I doubt they have any plans to actually invade until Gaza is leveled.
The land invasion is irrelevant if international pressure to lift the genocidal blockade does not exceed the pressure of a hostile population who knows their oppression will end in genocide; that first pressure will never become the dominant aspect. Instead, Israel can bomb and starve forever and the Israeli population is radicalized enough to accept the losses from having a semi-porous border.
A direct assault would probably end as you described, both on the ground and in terms of propaganda. Which is why they are hemming and hawing. Instead, the threat is armed as a backstop to prevent further intervention by the anti-Israeli Arab forces.
They are gambling that international-political-death by a thousand papercuts is less likely to result in the expansion of conflict than a direct ground invasion.
Rapidly crumbling international support
Could you elaborate on that? I thought the international community was rallying behind them. Won't the US oriented part of the world do whatever the US asks in order to defend their "unsinkable aircraft carrier"?
The US Federal government isn't the entire world. Look at EU member countries like Croatia and Ireland increasingly coming out in favor of Palestine/Gaza. Arabic countries Israel had been normalizing with are withdrawing support. The global south is standing firmly against Israel. And even in the global north, popular sentiment is quickly turning in favor of Palestine.
Maybe I'm insufficiently cynical for Hexbear here.
I've seen people compare the media coverage of this to propaganda before around the Iraq war, but I feel like it's already much less one-sided than the calls for invasion were then. I read a Guardian article that made it very clear how horrific Israel's response has been, and how their treatment of Palestine has been horrible for years. For a major source it was about as pro-Palestine as I could imagine them right now. Even on Reddit, I was browsing some comment sections and there was surprisingly humane discussion about the issue.
its also the fact that economic support for israel is almost impossible at this time due to how much was drained by ukraine
Yeah Hamas really timed this perfectly, the empire is at the weakest it has ever been in my lifetime
Since when was Croatia or Ireland a critical part of Israel support network? The global south has been fairly uniformly against Israel for decades.
And even in the global north, popular sentiment is quickly turning in favor of Palestine.
I have no idea how correct that is or not because the press and halls of power have fully closed rank around Israel. Popular support for Israel might be dropping and once they invade it will almost certainly drop more. But who knows if anything will come of it.
there's no way to get anything into Gaza, Isntreal controls it by land, sea, and air. the only way is through Egypt, but they have no desire to do that plus Isntreal is bombing the shit out of the border crossing. I have no clue how they've managed to get any weapons in Gaza in the first place.
I have no clue how they've managed to get any weapons in Gaza in the first place.
Gaza has an elaborate system of smuggling tunnels, doesn't it?
I think that's reasonable for why they're reluctant but it won't stop them.
Oh, I think it's going to happen. But they're putting it off as long as possible.
This is just going to end up like the Iliad with the
stuck there bored as fuck and getting into dick-waving matches for 9 yearsThere's no way they do a ground invasion soon. They'll shell Gaza for weeks before they do that. They have the ability to basically completely flatten Gaza why would they invade it? Probably that's their goal now. Move civilians around and shell each region and claim that it's okay because they told the civilians to move first.
It seems to me Netanyahu ordered it to happen sooner and some top brass guys pulled him aside and we’re like “no fucking way we can do that in three days” I really hope he overrides them and just does it anyway so they can get absolutely fucked
Shells eventually run out. They'll have to commit boots on the ground sooner or later.
The tunnels await them.
T̴̺̕͠h̷͉̲̑͌͛ĩ̸͚̯s̴̛̖͐̐ ̶̟̤́i̵͕̎͐̈́s̸͓̞̔̅ ̶̲̘͛͒͗y̴͓͒o̷̥͂̀ͅṵ̸̻͗͋̇͜r̴̻̥̖͗̚ ̷̭͘ḧ̷͎͂ỏ̸̗l̸͍̦̇̚͠e̴̖̥̎͜͝.̸͕́ ̷͚̆̍̚ͅI̵͚̓̽ţ̴̄̿ ̷̯͊̀͗w̸͙̃̑̒a̵͇̬̾̀͒s̶̻̃ ̶̡̗̗̓͌̚ṃ̵͎̏̈́e̶̬͋̐a̵͙͕̼̎n̴͚̮̑t̶̞͌͛͘ ̸͚͒͌̇͜f̷̱͕̣̃̉̒o̷̠̩͋̀̀r̷̨͙̀ ̶̥͚̠̅ỷ̵̗́̾ͅo̸͎͔͎̊̍̈ǔ̷͔̀͝.̵̻̞̳̄̍
-Hamas
Entirely correct. Hamas has the superior position going forward: Netanyahu has made a great miscalculation, and many Western governments have walked into a terrible trap. Despite having the best propaganda, and immense power to disseminate (dis)information, the online illusions created by the IDF are just that, and will not hold up: the world does not support Israel.
Israel wouldn't be defeated, but they sure would face a higher loss than they are used to. I imagine he bombing is meant to level the place before they enter to reduce their losses.
But they outnumber and overpower the resistance by far
Israel doesn't have the wherewithal to maintain a ground invasion in the face of massive casualties, which is exactly what they would face. Would they kill more Palestinians than IDF soldiers would die? Yes. But winning isn't about getting the best KD. It's about being able - militarily, economically, and politically - to carry out your operation until your objectives are achieved. They lost in 2006, and that's what created the status quo blockade.
Internal settler politics dictates that the occupiers have to invade Gaza in order to restore their injured pride. If they don't, the Netanyahu regime is unlikely to survive. On the other hand, if the occupiers tries to liquidate the Gaza ghetto they will meet fierce resistance which will make the occupation much costlier to the settlers. Sniping innocent civilians from a safe distance is all fun and games to the average zionist stormtrooper, getting blown up in urban combat against a well-prepared and disciplined enemy is not. The planned invasion will bring the war a lot closer to the non-active military settlers who was able to live a sheltered life emulating that of civilians in normal countries. The occupiers will also have to commit quite a lot of troops and materiel, leaving them open to attacks from Hezbollah in the north.
Meanwhile, the immense fascist brutality of such an operation is likely to wear down public support for Zionism abroad. Already, the genocidal starving and indiscriminate carpet bombings of civilians in Gaza is making zionist propaganda inefficient and the initial pro-zionist sentiment in the west is transforming into "both sides bad" which is problematic in its own right but far from the unwaivering support for genocide that the zionists were hoping for. In the Muslim world, zionist atrocities is making people fiercely oppose comprador regimes trying to "normalise" relations with the zionist entity.
Hamas has been planning this operation for years and seems to be very well informed. They know their enemy very well and must be anticipating the invasion of Gaza. They want the zionists to bring the fight to their home turf where they can inflict maximum damage on them.
