1. The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders

  2. Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah

  3. Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose

These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.

Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?

  • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
    ·
    9 months ago

    I think just #2 is reasonable because I'm sure there are talks going on behinds the scenes that probably show a completely different picture, we can look at the Ukraine war and how the media shows the bloodthirsty propaganda of the counter offensive meanwhile all the actual analysts were pointing out the US was not realy willing to commit much beyond what they already gave and they demand results before re-investing again. Meanwhile the media is all about Slava Ukraine with the US just happily supporting it. Reality was not so simple.

    In this case I think with regards to #1 and #3 again I point to the Ukraine war and how the NATO axis realy believes their actual superiority shit, they actualy believe they'll just march and the enemy will just run away in fear, that their toys are invincible etc.

    Maybe this is a hot take but I actualy really doubt the IDF is as fearful as the narrative pushed here often. If they share the same military doctrine as NATO then why would they not be as corrupt and incompetent?

    I think there is more than enough reason to believe the only reason holding them back is political. Militarily speaking I don't think they have any doubts of their capability to achieve "victory" however that is defined.

    • Tankiedesantski [he/him]
      ·
      9 months ago

      In this case I think with regards to #1 and #3 again I point to the Ukraine war and how the NATO axis realy believes their actual superiority shit, they actualy believe they'll just march and the enemy will just run away in fear, that their toys are invincible etc.

      I think the difference is that NATO has never had to go peer-to-peer against an enemy that could fight back so that's why it was so arrogant. The IDF has a recentish memory of going into Lebanon and getting it's shit pushed in, so it probably has a more sober assessment.

    • ProfessorAdonisCnut [he/him]
      ·
      9 months ago

      they demand results before re-investing again

      Reminds me of how much the Confederacy early in the US Civil War was hoping for diplomatic and military support from Britain and France, and partly wanted major victories to persuade them it had a hope in hell of winning if they did.