Image is of Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Ansarallah.
The death of Zionism has just massively accelerated.
previous preamble
BRICS has expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina is currently experiencing technical difficulties due to the election of the ancap clown Milei - once he's out of office, maybe they can try again.
I don't really have much to say about this one way or another. BRICS has, so far, made only nervous and small steps towards challenging US hegemony. This isn't really that unexpected, as only China and Russia are the real "true believers" in ending US hegemony (and even then, China's government either believes, or is pretending to believe, that reconciliation is still possible). Brazil, India, and South Africa are less enthralled by the concept of dethroning the US, most especially India, who had to make a firm decision in 2023 whether they were going to be on the side of America, or on the side of the Global South, and chose the former, strengthening their military relationship. They're still best of friends with Russia, but they are very obviously the sussy imposter of the BRICS group.
The prospects of BRICS are only really loosely correlated with the prospects of multipolarism, though. It's not a process that hinges on BRICS's successes or failures. It is coming because the contender states (in Desai's terminology) are irreversibly rising, and the US is irreversibly falling. If it will not be BRICS that leads, it will be a different organization. A better world is not only possible, but inevitable - unfortunately for the US.
I'm taking a week off the updates because I've been swamped lately, and also feel the need to reconfigure (and find new) sources. Needless to say that I've grown tired of Financial Times headlines, even if they do represent the actual views of the bourgeoisie.
The Country of the Week is Ethiopia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Let's play a dedollarization hypothetical: if China declares a willingness to forgive USD debt in exchange for international institutions forgiving the same amount, doesn't that put the decision-making in the hands of the World Bank/IMF and puts pressure on them to make a reasonable decision?
China can basically dismantle global lending institutions solely by forgiving debt.
That's pretty much what China has been doing in Africa; insisting all debtors (private, state & institutional) take equal haircuts.
The pressure has not worked, consent manufacturing has so far been too strong.
China has still unilaterally forgiven a lot of African sovereign debt over the last few years.
China's PR engine is lacking, then.
Lol any Chinese person can tell you this, China's propaganda department is run by boomers who grew up during the high point of west worshipping civility fetishism in China, and as such are incapable of making relatable grey/black propaganda. They could hire some zoomer douyin/weibo/xhs shitposter and they would do a better job at PR than the entirety of CGTN.
Virgin CPC propagandist vs chad Chinese netizen
I mean, have you seen the FOCAC website? Shit looks like it's from 2007.
But the content is like what you're replying to describes lol.
They try to use their position in the IMF to try to get other countries out of the debt trap.
I think Michael Hudson is right we've reached the point where they should dip if the IMF refuses to play ball with that
This is what I have been saying. In fact, China can actually use its $800 billion dollar reserve to pay back the entirety of Africa’s dollar debt. That will drastically change the entire game and turn the table against the US.
However, their time is running out. There’s a reason why I said the fall of 2022 was the best timing for this. The US had started hiking interest rates in early 2022 after 14 years of near-zero rate, and as the global dollar liquidity was sucked into the US treasuries, it placed a lot of Global South countries in a situation where there isn’t enough circulating dollar to earn, while having the burden of higher interest rates being added on it. In other words, it was very difficult to find dollar to pay back their growing dollar debt.
What most people didn’t see at the time, was that as the short term treasuries mature, the US would have added $1 trillion USD in 2023. Huge amount of dollar is going to flow out again, and once the Global South countries get addicted to dollar again, it would be very hard for them to switch to another currency anymore. At 8% budget deficit in 2023, there is going to be a lot of dollar being pumped out and I don’t think it’s going to slow anytime soon.
This is why 2022 was the best timing for China and Russia to forgive the debt (in fact, they both did, but didn’t pursue it any further into 2023) and start flooding the Global South with yuan to displace the dollar. This would require China to give up its net exporter status, but because China had not been preparing for this by starting the transition into internal consumption economy years before, they were afraid of losing the export revenues which could drag their economy down. Meanwhile, BRICS has failed to come up with an alternative financial system that could displace the dollar system, and so, the rest of the world had remained unconvinced, and the dollar status is preserved.
Still, it would have been a better option in the long run because the US is adamant about decoupling from China anyway, even if it meant a radical and painful transformation of China’s economy. China staying as a net exporter country in the long term is a losing position as long as the dollar continues to remain as the global reserve currency.
A bit of history lesson here will help. The US was able to turn China into the global industrial hub by denying the rest of the Global South their industrial capacity. This helped the US to concentrate all the manufacturing base in China, which at the time they thought would be easy to control as China was still relatively weak as an economic power.
Now, all the US has to do is to let the Global South countries industrialize - as long as China’s and BRICS’s debts continue to be denominated in dollar, the US will be able to get free lunches if they play the long game. By then, the US doesn’t need China anymore, and if China still has a huge segment of its economy dependent on export, it will have to start competing with the rest of the world. China wouldn’t have a global reserve currency (because they wanted to remain as net exporter country, which means they want people to use yuan to buy stuff from them, and not saving the yuan), and it has to compete with an industrialized Global South, so that’s a losing position.
This is why I said the transition into the internal circulation economic model should be the priority for China, while at the same time forgiving dollar debt and use its huge dollar reserve to pay back as much Global South debt as possible to slow down the US monetary imperialism. Once they got out, they would be truly free from US hegemony. But for now, they are still stuck inside the vampire castle with a starving, deranged bloodsucker out for a feast.
TL;DR: 1. China needs to go internal circulation and give up the export economy as fast as it can; 2. write down and/or forgive as much dollar debt as they can; 3. if the dollar remains dominant, China staying as export economy is a losing position for them in the long term.
There is no long game though, the key word is climate change.
China will be the last industrialized country in the 21st century, climate change will not allow any capitalist based economy to industrialized through similar methods as China or early 20th century methods because these discussions always assume the next few decades will be BAU, that the global economy will function smoothly, that commodity prices will remain low etc.
This is a problem both for the global south looking for the same growth opportunities as before and for imperialist countries betting and relying on the continuation of global imperialism. We already saw COVID disruption as the preview of what awaits us in 30 years and that is being optimistic. That stupid ship that blocked the Suez for like a week? A minor war in the ME is already making western economists lose their mind.
I can't stress enough, the entire global shipping industry relies on the survival and well being of coastal populations and infrastructure. It is obvious who will be among the first ones to see the effects of climate change yes?
Economists in general do not talk about climate change from a doomerist perspective, even leftist/Marxist economists avoid the subject, though I understand why as some of them are more focused on critique more than anything else.
We should be redefining "industrialization" as to mean something much more akin to self-sufficiency rather than the same presumptions of industry based on capitalism consumerism and based on a stable and cheap global trading system. If we assume this shift then many of the current capitalist metrics become pointless, when you're focusing on survival(as we will be) you wont be looking at GDP growth.
And unfortunately you’ve said that the CPC plays their cards very close to their chest and so we dont really know what their plan is exactly, right?
That's exactly what it's doing. The IMF caught on eventually and is trying to get a lopsided deal, however: pressuring China to forgive debt and then not forgiving it themselves, effectively making it so that the IMF gets paid debts but China does not. China is pushing back, though, which they absolutely should.
Anything I could read about this?
Someone sent: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/interest-rates-hikes-as-geopolitical-weapon-how-the-us-is-trying-to-sideline-china.html