https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231207-report-nearly-0-5m-israelis-left-israel-after-7-october/
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231006-jews-reverse-immigration-from-israel-is-on-the-rise/
Israel only has a population of 9.3 million, and they half a million people fled the county immediately after the events of 10/7. On top of that, more people have been leaving Israel than coming to Israel for years. Israel has been hemorrhaging people for a long time. and now that they realize genociding the Palestinians with an all-out invasion is not the simple task they thought it was going to be, they are begging Americans to come die in the desert.
I've seen photos of 50+ folks walking around with rifles. And Israelis who signed up for doing ketamine on the beach with a mail-order Russian wife haven't exactly been shy about skipping town since this kicked off.
Very possible that they'll be press ganging folks before too long, if they haven't started already.
I don't think there's that many casualties on the Israel side that they'd be anywhere close to running low on manpower. It's not a meatgrinder like Ukraine, the IDF ground troops are mostly fighting unarmed civilians and anything that could be an actual threat is airstriked from a safe distance.
The western reporting on Israeli losses has been incredibly conservative, not unlike their coverage of Ukraine in its war with Russia. The 250-odd casualties they're reporting right now seems... very low, particularly given how jittery the IDF has behaved and how many friendly fire events I've heard reported. 20 Lieutenant Major Generals blowing themselves up in a controlled demolition in one incident would suggest maybe the head count is higher than that.
But even if you take this all at face value, you're in a country that is functionally surrounded by increasingly hostile Arab populations and launching a war of aggression with an inexperienced and ill-trained force into hostile territory while also getting into shooting matches with neighbors to their north and west AND dealing with another round of domestic fighting in the West Bank. That's putting a big strain on human resources, even if they're not losing anybody to so much as a twisted ankle over four months of active combat.
Oh for sure, I wouldn't believe Israel if they told me the sky is blue. It just seems to me like they're taking a lot of measures to not put themselves in harm's way and when they do go in, it's locked away inside a tank. Their immense ineptiude allows the occasional
but I do think their sheer cowardice works to keep casualties relatively low.
Its been a penny-wise, pound-foolish approach, if the Chapos on Ep 805 are to be believed. Lots of the Hamas videos leaking out around the Gaza conflict suggest that turtling in your tanks leaves you surprisingly vulnerable to folks who can pop up from sewer grates or out from around buildings without warning.
I think the ability to do aerial bombardments in the style of America demolishing North Korea during the 50s is effective in driving the entire population southward. But it doesn't appear they've got a solution that goes beyond obliterating the region with artillery. Given how sloppy some of these operations have been, how young some of the officers are, and how uncoordinated the advances, I've got to assume they're suffering friendly fire at least to the degree the US suffered during Afghanistan and Iraq.
That isn’t believing the chapos, it’s common knowledge that armor unsupported by infantry is hella vulnerable. Figured that out in WW1 for the most part.
Doubtful. They've just drawn down all of their reserves because the GDP is down 20% quarter over quarter and they need the workforce to prop up their economy.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/israel-4q-gdp-fell-at-20-rate-downward-trajectory-set-to-continue-as-war-drags-on.html