I feel like the better goal would be 150k, about how much Biden beat Trump by. But if the current percentages don’t change much they’ll fall a little shy of that. Still enough to show that there’s a very good chance of Biden losing, but > Biden’s 2020 margin would’ve been a very clear nail in the coffin for his chances in Michigan.

Also as far as I can tell there’s still a decent chance they’ll fall just shy of 15% as well.