One year on. Hundreds of thousands are dying or dead, millions are displaced, the Middle East is undergoing its greatest changes in a generation, Iran has directly attacked Israel twice in one year, and Yemen has proven that the US Navy ain't worth shit. We are the closest we have been to nuclear war (discounting accidents) in decades, but also the fall of Israel.
Because one day, the prisoners of a concentration camp paraglided over a wall.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
I've seen a lot of articles and youtube videos about how this war triggered Israel's death throes, and the parallels between Israel and apartheid South Africa & Rhodesia, but those media which highlighted the internal contradictions of Israel, its collapsing economy and international standing, often overlook how desperate the US is to have a satellite state in the West Asia enough to brazenly establish its support for Israel.
All this, despite the damage to US prestige and diplomatic credibility (notwithstanding that the US state does not nor needs to care about internal dissident or crisis) because the US can brute force its support and suffer little to no economic or political repercussions.
Israel is a nuclear powered state with very powerful supporters in the US and Europe, as part of a symbiotic relationship these powers have with each other, to ensure the economic and political dominance of the larger political community known as the "West".
My larger concern is what Norman Finkelstein has been saying recently: Israel has defeated Hamas in Gaza by destroying Gaza itself. Therefore, the probability that Israel has the power and support needed to enact its depraved agenda of ethnic cleansing and genocide, and survive its repercussions on the world stage for a decade before it goes back to the status quo of pre October 7th, is a very plausible future.
Israel has managed to pursue this for over a year now.
Israel is at its weakest moment and continues to get weaker; there will be no return to the status quo, nor even an attempt to do so.
Do not mistake the desperate flailing and biting of a terminally wounded animal with a leg torn off and an arrow in its side as a sign of strength and power.
This is incorrect. Hamas is stronger than ever. Gaza is in ruins but the people are not dead. Worst case estimates say that after a year of unchecked genocide 10% of Gazans are dead. Israel doesn't have 10 years. Now that isisrael are invading Lebanon they have to split their resources, resources that were already lower due to the damage Hamas inflicted. usa's ability to produce bombs is not unlimited. Their stockpiles of many other things are already tapped. usa can help but not much because they want to have a war with China.
The only thing defeated by the destruction of Gaza is the idea that the western liberal world order was "fair" or "just" and not just bloodthirsty racial supremacy.
When isisrael is defeated Gazans wont need Gaza because they will be able to go home.
There is no returning to status quo. The Zionists are fighting for the survival of their ethnosupremacist ideology. The American imperialists are fighting for holding on to the control of the Near/Middle East before their geopolitical influence is overshadowed China-Russia-Iran in the region. The strategic goals of Israel and the US are now fully in sync with one another. The war in Ukraine changed everything - it accelerated the process and forced both of them to respond to the new geopolitical reality.
With Iran on the verge of giving up its nuclear non-proliferation policy, this means it’s now or never. Either you reshape the Near/Middle East regional politics to align with your interests through violent force, or you watch it slip away from your hands forever. And when it seems the latter is going to be the case, scorch the entire region if you cannot get it, nobody else should.
I'd compare it more to Fr*nch Algeria, Fr-nce was a collapsing emoire and Algeria was a part of it rather than a colony.
How do they "win" when they kill everyone? They don't gain anything from this. They won't get a victory screen when they kill more people.
Also, they can't go back. They just started a 4-front war. They will never go back ever. Liberals always double down. They'd sooner declare war on China than go back.
Seems obvious to me, the purpose is to kill them all to take the land, they proud themselves on taking occupied Palestinian homes since day one.
The victory condition is clear, kill everyone and take the land, use the land to create a greater zionist state and use that as an even stronger foothold to cleanse the rest of the ME.
the zionists are living in fantasyland to think Gaza being theirs could turn this shit around. what, they'd get to build offshore oil rigs in a decade or two? how is that going to replace the people and materiel it loses to take it? the increased costs demanded by ongoing war because it's opened more fronts to 'facilitate' the first one?
nazis all seem to think they can kickstart the centuries-long historical process of settler colonialism on the timeline of a military campaign
Nobody ever accused fascists of being remotely rational or sane.
But at the same time a settler colonial project fundamentally includes land occupation, its the #1 requirement.
It’s not that they think they can turn it around, but that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
You have a 10% chance of success today versus a 1% chance in 5 years, you’d rather bet on that 10% chance.
The same with the US. Once Iran gets Russian air defenses (a process accelerated by the Ukraine war), then the US-Israeli air superiority in the region is over. If Iran gets its own nuclear weapons, they can actually retaliate against the US. They have to do this now before that opportunity is closed forever.
there's 100 ways they could have been more methodical and less clumsy if they were actually operating with a keen awareness of a 'window of opportunity', there's only a fascist anxiety absent real analysis or realistic prescriptions for victory. the nazis being somewhat aware that their capacity to do barbarossa was declining with time never reached the inescapably obvious conclusion it could not succeed, nor did it help them plan it appropriately---the push for the caucauasian oil fields only being granted priority after the campaign was underway
Like how?
Iran has positioned both of its direct interventions as replies to egregious provocations from israel. they would not have happened if there was any restraint on the zionists' part. the gains from their assassinations and terrorism do not match the damage and deeper commitment Iran has been forced into. and they're literally gearing up to do it again, apparently while running low on their air defenses. wasting resources bombing Syria. escalating in Lebanon before they can decrease commitments in Gaza or the West Bank.
how is this a "master plan"? this is a suicide pact relying on god or the united states to sweep in and fix everything for them. even if provoking US entry is the core pillar they're genuinely pursuing to the exclusion of fascist delusion that they can win 10 fronts at once: that is still irrational. the US has proven repeatedly it cannot wipe away entrenched resistance! they've also lost in Lebanon, and lost in Iraq!
The US and Israel both want to destroy Iran. There is no “provoking US entry”, both their strategic goals are completely aligned at this point. This is their last chance to get the damage done before the opportunity is lost forever. The war in Ukraine threw a wrench into their long term plan and they’re simply adjusting to the reality of having to accelerate the war before it is too late.
They’re willing to take the gamble, because the alternative is Israel losing its ethnostate dream and America losing its control of the Near/Middle East to China forever.
Both outcomes present an existential crisis to their respective ideologies: the Zionists are never going to give up the ethnostate dream because that would be the end of their ideology; the American imperialists are never going to let their control of the periphery slip away without putting on a real fight because that would also be the end of their imperialist ambitions.
how could the US-directed proxy war to break Russia be an unexpected hiccup in the long-term plan? surely if the people operating this are rational and aware, they'd be coordinating between their theatres. if we're going to assume a unity of action between israel and the US, we need to consider if the US is acting in a coherent and reasonable way to further their goals--would it be an unexpected analysis to posit they aren't either? the US has plans, has ideology, but mostly contradictory and uncoordinated. US plans global military hegemony---US neoliberal ideology demands no industrial capacity to maintain it. US plans to attack Iran---US also plans to attack Russia and China, but has no idea which first, which priority, how much to commit. they're listless and in the meantime exhausting their arsenal on the holding actions, inexorably decreasing their abilities to pursue any/all 3.
The primary objective of the war in Ukraine was to break Europe. That objective has been largely achieved. The unexpected consequence was that Russia did not fold under sanctions, and it backfired through inflation in the US domestic economy. This was why the Fed hiked rates for the past two years, placing the dominant status of the US dollar under unprecedented risk.
The last two years have been the Biden administration adapting to this new reality and gambling that China would not take advantage of this exposed weakness of the dollar, and their gambit worked. The US dollar has more or less restored its strength and now it’s time to turn against Iran before the entire Middle East fell to China’s influence - which is only a matter of time if the US doesn’t do anything.
You are assuming that capitalism cannot adapt to failures (which happen all the time), but in fact capitalism is infinitely adaptable to new dynamics, which is why Marxist-Leninist theories are so important - these opportunities that expose the weakness of the imperial power occur only once in a while, and if they are not seized upon, the gap would be filled in short notice.
one constellation of monetary policies projecting a seeming success does not mean everything the US has been doing is/was in service of the same policy, or that they've been successful. the US hasn't disentangled from Ukraine even if the "objective has been largely achieved", the materiel they expended on that has not been restored. the manufacturing deficiencies it exposed have not been addressed. Iran is the best equipped adversary they're attempting to challenge since ww2.. maybe Vietnam in the later years of the conflict was close--point is they're not prepared. the US dollar being 'strong' doesn't put missiles in the field.
2nd paragraph is the epitome of easier said than done.
They can take the land. They're boned. They can't even defeat Hamas which is necessary to take the land.
And when that "victory condition" is achieved, what then? Do they get a victory screen and go to naziheaven? Or do they just get another barrage of iranian missiles in the face?
Israel is genocidal. Killing everyone is kind pf the point of genocide.
And then? Are they happy then? Are they safe then? Do they have more resources then? No.
The goal of the zionists is to put all jews into jerusalem so some weird magic happens and kills them all. But that magic doesn't exist outside Nicholas 2's rotten ghoul brain.
The goal is to create enough liebensraum for millions of jews in Europe and the Americas. Even if they magically got every Jewish person to do aliyah, they would then open their doors to converts like Milei and probably Afrikaners should South Africa splinter. Given what just happened to Armenia, I sincerely doubt they will ever again pursue peace.
Nazis killed 13M+ in the Holocaust, still ate shit.
That is a fair point, but Israel is trying to get the US military officially involved, far beyond the current capacity that it is now, to overwhelm and intimidate their enemies in West Asia into compliance and submission. Israel's gambit of making the outcome of their existential crisis synonymous with US hegemonic influence is a viable strategy to ensure Israel survives the outcome of this crisis, even if it has to be on US life support.
(I guess my parent post is a plea to be "counter-Finkelstein-pilled" regarding his analysis on Gaza. )
You (and Finklestein by extention) aren't really thinking about what "direct us involvement" that is somehow massively beyond what it already doing really means and how limited it really is. The United States is not a god and cannot simply wish for its enemies to vanish. If you really cannot help yourself from seeing the resistance in Gaza and Lebanon as finished (you didn't mention Hezbollah but they also have to defeated for Hamas to be truly finished) if nothing else, the "status quo" you are worried about basically involves Iran vanishing in less time then it took for the united states to fail to completely control iraq and to run away from Afganistan saigon-style. There is no real path to that happening without magic or humanity in its entirety being a month at best away from extinction. You need keep reminding your brain that all the members of resistance axis are at least as effective at combat as the Taliban.
Unlike Ukraine it's difficult to see an exit ramp for Israel. They've escalated things so far and seem so ideologically committed to the destruction of west asia that it's hard to see them in any state but perpetual war until there's a decisive victor one way or the other. I'm sure the US will continue to support them until whatever outcome but the US is not omnipotent and a future with China as the hegemon (for lack of a better word) seems baked in at this point. I agree that Israel's war will continue for a lot longer than any of us expect but I don't think there's going to be any return to the status quo. In fact I don't think there's going to be any return to the status quo for a lot of things. The balance is shifting geopolitically and ecologically.
There will never be a return to the status quo. Look at 2014, to 2016, to 2020, to 2024. It's only escalation of crises. Nowhere is it returning to "normal" and it won't. The imperialist engine cannot stop until it consumes everything or is defeated.
I disagree with Norman, you can't destroy Gaza without defeating Hamas and removing its people. Israelis can't even park their tanks there let alone building homes.
By some estimates they've killed 1/4 of the population by now; the grim reality is they can just continue doing what they're doing for another few years and the genocide will be complete. It's up to the rest of the region, and the world, to find a way to stop things before it gets to that point. The pressure is definitely having an impact but there's still so many different outcomes possible, everything from total genocide to a wave of revolutions in the region to world war 3, and more that none of us have thought of.
Correct.