Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Coolkidbozzy [he/him]
    ·
    edit-2
    4 days ago

    Big article on updates to the Colorado River water rights negotiation. Written strangely from a pro-Californian perspective, because there's no mention of how much water Californian farming corporations waste.

    TLDR: Big rift between the lower and upper states on who should cut. No progress, and the negotiators are having petty fights blaming each other for the lack of progress. Trump will be taking over the negotiations. Realistically he won't have a proposal all states are okay with, so it'll become a legal battle at the end of 2026, probably going to the Supreme Court.

    This is important because the Colorado River supports 40 million people, an enormous amount of hydroelectricity including the Hoover Dam, 15% of US agriculture, and 90% of winter vegetables. Asking states to cut water usage will force farmers to change crops, or go out of business. But allowing the reservoirs to dry would make a bunch of states and tribal lands uninhabitable, create enormous electricity shortages, and destroy a bunch of ecosystems

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-12-10/colorado-river-divisions

    ‘Zero progress’: Western states at impasse in talks on Colorado River water shortages

    spoiler

    Seven Western states that depend on the Colorado River are ending the year at an impasse in negotiations over the writing of new rules for dealing with chronic water shortages.

    Representatives of California and other states who attended an annual Colorado River conference in Las Vegas last week said they remain deadlocked in their talks on long-term plans for reducing water use to prevent the river’s reservoirs from reaching critically low levels.

    Disagreements over competing proposals have created a deep rift between two camps: the three states in the river’s lower basin — California, Arizona and Nevada — and the four states in the river’s upper basin — Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico.

    Those on both sides say they are willing to continue trying to reach a deal on how to apportion cutbacks in water use after 2026, when the current rules expire. But they also say easing the stalemate will be difficult.

    Negotiations over the last year have brought “zero progress,” said JB Hamby, California’s Colorado River commissioner. He blamed the upper basin states for an entrenched position resisting participation in the cutbacks, which he said is untenable.

    It’s worrying that there is a “widening chasm” between the sides, Hamby said. “We are running out of time, and we’re no closer to much of anything at this point than at the beginning.”

    The Biden administration last month outlined a range of alternatives for the new guidelines, which will replace interim rules that were adopted in 2007. Along with that ongoing federal review process, President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is set to inherit a role in searching for a plan that all seven states can accept.

    lmao trump is going to try and kill californian farming corporations

    The impasse has raised the possibility that if disagreements aren’t resolved, the states could enter a legal battle, a path riddled with uncertainty that water managers in both camps have said they hope to avoid.

    The tensions were apparent during last week’s Colorado River Water Users Assn. conference in Las Vegas, an event that often features negotiating sessions in addition to speeches outlining proposals for reducing demands on the river.

    One public disagreement emerged over the lack of a meeting of the seven states’ representatives at the conference, a closed-door discussion that was usually scheduled in previous years.

    Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s top negotiator, said during one public session that she had expected representatives of all seven states to meet before the gathering started, but “that did not occur.”

    Hamby took issue with her comment in an interview after the conference, saying it was untrue to suggest the lower basin states had denied a request to meet. Hamby said Mitchell had emailed him and others Dec. 2 to ask if they would have time to meet on Dec. 3 before the start of the conference, but he told her that wouldn’t work because his flight was scheduled to arrive later.

    Hamby accused Mitchell of trying to portray representatives of California, Arizona and Nevada as being unwilling to talk.

    “It was a last-minute pointed request meant to not generate a meeting, and then use it as a media sound bite,” Hamby said. “It begs the question, why would we want to talk to them when this is the sort of childish antics that seem to be increasingly dominating the upper basin’s manner of behavior? Not focused on actual issues, but how do we play gotcha games in the media that misrepresent each other.”

    Mitchell denied that, saying she emailed hoping all the states’ representatives would meet during the week, but that didn’t happen.

    “My intention is to find a way to move forward,” she said. “And so I’d be willing to meet any time — Zoom, phone, in person, anywhere.”

    The Colorado River provides water for cities from Denver to Los Angeles, 30 Native tribes and farmlands from the Rocky Mountains to northern Mexico.

    The river has long been over-allocated, and its reservoirs have declined dramatically since 2000. The average flow of the river has shrunk about 20% since 2000, and scientists have estimated that roughly half that decline has been caused by global warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels and rising levels of greenhouse gases.

    The decline in flow is projected to worsen as temperatures rise.

    In recent years, the states have adopted a series of incremental water-saving plans to try to prevent reservoirs from reaching perilously low levels.

    California water agencies say they have reduced water use by more than 1.2 million acre-feet over the last two years, decreasing the state’s usage of Colorado River supplies to the lowest levels since the 1940s. Some of those water savings have come through the Biden administration’s funding of programs that pay farmers to temporarily leave fields dry to reduce water use.

    Those efforts have helped conserve water in Lake Mead, the country’s largest reservoir. As of this week, the reservoir near Las Vegas is 33% full.

    Upstream on the Utah-Arizona border, the water level of Lake Powell, the nation’s second-largest reservoir, stands at 38% of capacity.

    With the negotiations on future water reductions at an impasse, some experts at the conference discussed the possibility of a legal fight being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

    Summarizing the mood at the meeting in an article for the news site Aspen Journalism, reporter Heather Sackett wrote that “speakers invoked Dr. Strangelove, the Hunger Games and Alice in Wonderland to convey the dire, darkly dystopian and illusory state of the negotiations.”

    Mitchell told The Times in an interview that the hard discussions reflect the difficulty of making substantial changes to adapt when the reservoirs are at low levels.

    “When you’re negotiating at or near crisis points within these reservoirs, it becomes more and more difficult,” Mitchell said.

    Still, Mitchell said she is hopeful the negotiators will be able to progress in the talks.

    “I really feel like we might want to spend some time looking at where we have some common ground, and see what we can build on from there,” Mitchell said. “We have to look at what the supply is and share that.”

    The two groups of states have presented starkly different proposals, disagreeing on how triggers for mandatory cutbacks should be determined, and how the reductions should be apportioned.

    Representatives of California, Arizona and Nevada say the upper states’ proposal is unworkable because it would require the lower states to shoulder the burden of the cuts, while the lower basin’s proposal would spread the cuts throughout the region when reservoirs reach low levels.

    Representatives of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico say they are seeking proportionate reductions. Officials from those states have said because water users in their region largely depend on snowmelt rather than water releases from reservoirs, they already regularly face serious shortages.

    Water managers in the upper basin states have come under criticism recently from environmentalists and officials in other states for moving ahead with plans for new dams and diversions that would take more water from the river.

    Hamby said those plans are a source of concern.

    “This is not the time for putting a further strain on an already stressed river that’s only going to be getting smaller in the future,” Hamby said.

    Mitchell said agencies in Colorado are developing such projects with the understanding that their water rights will likely be curtailed in many years because of limited supplies.

    “In many cases, new storage projects will essentially simply help folks store water in wet years so they can survive in the dry years,” she said. “We need to take advantage of those.”

    Early next year, Entsminger said, “the states need to get back to work and start forging a solution.”

    • VILenin [he/him]
      ·
      edit-2
      4 days ago

      My prediction: the much-desired progress will never come and the status quo will continue until it physically cannot and the whole thing derails uncontrollably.

      • TomBombadil [he/him, she/her]
        ·
        4 days ago

        You are definitely right. I've worked on projects trying to solve this and every decision maker ignores your models and pays someone else to tell them they're right. Until materially reality asserts itself they won't fix anything.

        • CarmineCatboy2 [he/him]
          ·
          4 days ago

          Personally I'm betting on the water wars followed by a Californian Empire - Texan Bougie Republic cold war.