From a purely academic standpoint (and therefore useless) It depends. For my money, I'd say that what the U.S. right (and to a lesser extent Democrats) is attempting to engage in is the outright social murder of the trans community, in particular attempting to make supporting them and their causes a football and wedge to divide voting rightwing and liberal (same thing I know) 'moderates'. While murder and assault is tacitly approved by the cop culture, it is not outright approved by the majority of people in the U.S.

However, if this could easily proceed into a direct genocide or sexual minority cleansing should things get worse. It wouldn't be unprecedented, as the LGBTQ community arguably already suffered from such cleansing policies previously in the 80's during the AIDS crisis (there are horrifying pictures of just rows and rows of beds along hallways in SF wards during the peak of the crisis, with no emergency support and even outright denial from the federal government).

This is one of the things that I personally like to point to when liberals wring their hands about things 'getting worse' for the LGBT community. It already happened, and the strong activist community was a result of those policies! Things were already much, much, worse and you folks did absolutely nothing except acknowledge the suffering decades later, your lukewarm support cannot be relied upon in times of crisis. LGBT communities will have to figure out ways to protect their own, and it is ultimately better that they do so than rely on fairweather liberals. Is it better to have the government on your side? Sure! But not when that government tries to make that support conditional on you also supporting crimes against humanity overseas.