It's honestly one of those things that relies on information we don't have. If the Resistance is in as good as a shape as they say they are, then I think they still retain the capacity to continue the death-by-thousand-cuts of Israel's forces, and thus an extended ceasefire will be predicated on further releases of prisoners inside Israeli prisons, and can't be enforced upon them. If the Resistance actually isn't in as good a shape as they say they are, then obviously the calculus changes. Israel is claiming a couple thousand Hamas militants dead, which I don't personally find very believable because... well, it's fucking Israel, they've somehow been even more propagandistic and less honest than Ukraine was which is an incredible achievement, but more specifically, this entire time, they've been bombing civilians and then saying "Oh, it's fine, because in that 200-person group, there were 15 Hamas terrorists there, and the smart adults in the room have cleverly run the algorithm and decided it was worth it, never you fear, it's not a crime against humanity," and then it turns out that there probably weren't actually any militants there. If the Gazan Resistance has the 40k soldiers they say they have, then even if we believe Israeli claims, it doesn't follow that they've been substantially weakened. Even if the Gazans are lying and they have more like 20k, an army can still be effective with 10% losses - I'm unsure how much the usual ratio of "If you lose 30% of the soldiers then your attacking force becomes almost unable to effectively carry out orders" changes for guerrilla forces tbh.

Because all their military facilities and transportation is underground, and so above-ground territorial gains by Israel aren't really that meaningful in that context - if anything, it increases the number of Israelis that various Resistance units can target at once, thus making the casualties and deaths accelerate further and further if Israel continues to go in - it makes it really, really hard to determine who's actually winning if you're genuinely interested in just finding out the truth. Neither side is going to reveal their Ls, aside from Hezbollah posting their martyrs I suppose, and we have no TRUE idea of what's going on underneath the surface of Gaza. So a lot of the war online has become this Battle of Vibes: "Oh, I saw a horrific video of a group of civilians getting killed at X location in Gaza, therefore I have bad vibes that Hamas will win this," or "Oh, I saw an epic video of a Resistance fighter running up and putting an explosive on a tank, so I have good vibes that Hamas will win this." We have little hard evidence of anything. I think the closest thing we have are the reports by Israeli gravediggers, and the actual physical videos and pictures of Resistance fighters destroying/damaging enemy vehicles - but is the claim of like 300+ vehicles destroyed since October 7th actually true? We have no idea. I think it probably is close to the truth, but that is also a result of my internal vibes.

I think the ceasefire is a meaningful event for calibrating the loose claims floating around onto something visible and physical in that way, as it suggests that Israel has been forced down from its platform of total annihilation of Hamas and militarily rescuing the hostages in the process because it simply isn't feasible, at least on a short timescale that won't result in most of the hostages dying over time (and, optimistically, on any timescale). It still wants to annihilate Hamas, of course, but realized that it would not be forthcoming.