In a war, the small island of Taiwan would erupt into a battleground with an intensity unknown since the world wars. It is all about the US striving to maintain its hegemonic reach during a period of decline in global influence.

So, apparently the author of this article works for the Pentagon, and was attempting to blow the whistle on US efforts to push towards a war with China. There's a recent Washington Post article about it here.

He also wrote this article shortly before, which is worth a read.

  • pooh [she/her, love/loves]
    ·
    3 years ago

    But again, the US literally won’t even recognize Taiwan because it is so economically dependent on China.

    The non-recognition of Taiwan is due to diplomacy, and has existed for quite some time. China views Taiwan as a renegade province, because it is. The US treats Taiwan as independent in practice, but also publicly states that Taiwan is still part of China in order to avoid provoking them and maintain the status quo. It’s basically a lever the US uses to control China.

    China is both a nuclear power (which the US, as a rule, does not go to war with) and the manufacturing base for the US.

    War hawks in the US are pushing a strategy of “decoupling” in order to remove China as a manufacturing base, which is another worrying sign. You’d think the US would be smart enough not to trigger a war with another nuclear power, but all signs point to a long-term goal of conflict with China, which is why people are sounding the alarm right now.

    China will eventually overtake the US and put an end to its global empire, and the only chance the US has to prevent this is by isolating China internationally and/or winning a war against them. Saving US empire is the core issue, not necessarily winning or losing Taiwan.

    • jack [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      3 years ago

      Until the US successfully "decouples" from China (see you in a couple decades), war will be impossible because it would immediately lead to the complete collapse of the economy. That would do far more to accelerate the end of US power than China's current trajectory. It is the worst case scenario for American power.

      On the grand scale, America has already lost. China is ascendant and the US will settle for second place, because its only alternatives are:

      A) traditional war with China, which would be out of character for the US for a number of reasons. The US does not go to war with major powers. It does not go to war with nuclear armed countries. Not only would it be breaking these two extremely reliable historical trends, but it would be entirely obliterating its own economy immediately.

      B) Nuclear annihilation, which is a lot worse than second place, including for the people in power.

      The fearmongering over an actual, direct military conflict with China is completely unfounded based on a total misunderstanding of either the way the US military operates or the function of the global economy. I will very confidently state this: barring a dramatic change in the ruling philosophies and economic modes of one or both countries, there will not be a war between the US and China in the next few decades.

      At the very most, you could get some proxy wars, but China simply does not care to engage in those the way the USSR did in Vietnam, Korea, etc.