So, apparently the author of this article works for the Pentagon, and was attempting to blow the whistle on US efforts to push towards a war with China. There's a recent Washington Post article about it here.
He also wrote this article shortly before, which is worth a read.
Your reminder that US carriers are sitting targets for drones and cruise missiles and, to put it bluntly, floating coffins. This has been an acknowledged problem for decades (Radio War Nerd wrote a lot about carrier shortcomings for a while now) and the US has done nothing about it. China has been developing cruise missiles and drones meanwhile the PLAN will probably reach parity with the US pacific fleet by the end of the decade - parity in tonnage and personnel, mind.
The US navy will be unable to do much of anything in the pacific - not to say that incredible damage can't be inflected on China and surrounding nations in some half-cocked action of a dying empire - they just wouldn't be able to accomplish the mission of blockading Taiwain from the mainland or defeating the PLAN and the US will be in a military situation without air superiority because of it (something they've become unused to). If the US decided to go to war with China, it'd be like Russia losing to Japan in 1905 and could probably shock a bunch of libs out of being spellbound by supposed US invincibility. Maybe even radicalize them, who knows, no 1917 without 1905 really.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
That said, if the U.S. goes to war with another nuclear superpower all of this could get academic real fast.
This is pretty damn interesting:
Red, commanded by retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper, adopted an asymmetric strategy, in particular, using old methods to evade Blue's sophisticated electronic surveillance network. Van Riper used motorcycle messengers to transmit orders to front-line troops and World-War-II-style light signals to launch airplanes without radio communications.
Red received an ultimatum from Blue, essentially a surrender document, demanding a response within 24 hours. Thus warned of Blue's approach, Red used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of Blue's fleet by the second day of the exercise. In a preemptive strike, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces' electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships: one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of Blue's six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of Blue's navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected.
So, Red wins, and they use this result to adjust their tactics... Right?
At this point, the exercise was suspended, Blue's ships were "re-floated", and the rules of engagement were changed; this was later justified by General Peter Pace as follows: "You kill me in the first day and I sit there for the next 13 days doing nothing, or you put me back to life and you get 13 more days' worth of experiment out of me. Which is a better way to do it?"[1] After the reset, both sides were ordered to follow predetermined plans of action.
After the war game was restarted, its participants were forced to follow a script drafted to ensure a Blue Force victory. Among other rules imposed by this script, Red Force was ordered to turn on their anti-aircraft radar in order for them to be destroyed, and was not allowed to shoot down any of the aircraft bringing Blue Force troops ashore.[3] Van Riper also claimed that exercise officials denied him the opportunity to use his own tactics and ideas against Blue Force, and that they also ordered Red Force not to use certain weapons systems against Blue Force and even ordered the location of Red Force units to be revealed.[4]
:warf-wtf:
“You kill me in the first day and I sit there for the next 13 days doing nothing, or you put me back to life and you get 13 more days’ worth of experiment out of me. Which is a better way to do it?”
Dude totally missed a chance to fuck around at work for 2 weeks
can't believe he killed himself by 2 gunshots to the back of the head
If I were him I'd consider just moving to China for (some, maybe) protection.
he is now under "counterintelligence investigation"
https://hexbear.net/post/118975
In a war, the small island of Taiwan would erupt into a battleground with an intensity unknown since the world wars. It is all about the US striving to maintain its hegemonic reach during a period of decline in global influence
It isn't going to end up a war, Taiwan will fold. If it truly came to blows China would likely just blockade the island.
This guy has major Pentagon brainworms. He really thinks that two nuclear powers will engage in open battle over rhetoric? Especially when the target is 70 miles off the coast of one of them?
I’m terminally afraid of the US arrogance getting us all killed. The military is getting staffed with the same group of failsons as every other aspect of society and many of them believe their own bullshit.
Half of those nuclear powers are full of Pentagon brainworms. According to legend, every single general advising JFK told him to attack during the Cuban missile crisis, and I'm not sure Biden will be as assertive as JFK was. I don't think nuclear war will be on the table, but it's definitely something to worry about
He really thinks that two nuclear powers will engage in open battle over rhetoric?
Maybe I'm paranoid, but I could totally see some out of control fascist like "President Mike (MyPillow guy) Lindell" trying something like this. US leadership is in rapid decline, and who knows what we'll end up with in a few years.
The Pentagon boys have always been regulated by the civilian government. If the civilian government has the same psychosis as the military, it's game over.
Trump was crazy, but he wasn't "let's nuke people" crazy. We saw the limits with Soleimani. That was an example of them finally getting one of their harebrained ideas through.
Yeah the "othering" is really gross. From the couple of minutes I've actually watched TV news coverage over the last couple weeks, I saw them talking about China virus-related stuff and they showed pictures of regular Chinese people: butchers and others, going about their business. As if like some "dirty" Chinese people created the virus or something. Like why show a butcher when you're talking about something completely unrelated, really?
The US doesn't care too much about taiwan, definitely not worth going to war with china over it. Losing tsmc would be a pretty big deal though.
The US does care about losing their global empire, though. A conflict over Taiwan would just be the excuse they need to go to war with China in order to stop them from becoming the new global superpower.
The US won't even recognize Taiwan as a country, why the fuck would it go to war for it
Taiwan would just be the excuse. The real reason to go to war is to stop China’s rise and make sure that US global dominance remains intact.
But again, the US literally won't even recognize Taiwan because it is so economically dependent on China. If it won't do that, on what planet would it go to war? China is both a nuclear power (which the US, as a rule, does not go to war with) and the manufacturing base for the US.
But again, the US literally won’t even recognize Taiwan because it is so economically dependent on China.
The non-recognition of Taiwan is due to diplomacy, and has existed for quite some time. China views Taiwan as a renegade province, because it is. The US treats Taiwan as independent in practice, but also publicly states that Taiwan is still part of China in order to avoid provoking them and maintain the status quo. It’s basically a lever the US uses to control China.
China is both a nuclear power (which the US, as a rule, does not go to war with) and the manufacturing base for the US.
War hawks in the US are pushing a strategy of “decoupling” in order to remove China as a manufacturing base, which is another worrying sign. You’d think the US would be smart enough not to trigger a war with another nuclear power, but all signs point to a long-term goal of conflict with China, which is why people are sounding the alarm right now.
China will eventually overtake the US and put an end to its global empire, and the only chance the US has to prevent this is by isolating China internationally and/or winning a war against them. Saving US empire is the core issue, not necessarily winning or losing Taiwan.
Until the US successfully "decouples" from China (see you in a couple decades), war will be impossible because it would immediately lead to the complete collapse of the economy. That would do far more to accelerate the end of US power than China's current trajectory. It is the worst case scenario for American power.
On the grand scale, America has already lost. China is ascendant and the US will settle for second place, because its only alternatives are:
A) traditional war with China, which would be out of character for the US for a number of reasons. The US does not go to war with major powers. It does not go to war with nuclear armed countries. Not only would it be breaking these two extremely reliable historical trends, but it would be entirely obliterating its own economy immediately.
B) Nuclear annihilation, which is a lot worse than second place, including for the people in power.
The fearmongering over an actual, direct military conflict with China is completely unfounded based on a total misunderstanding of either the way the US military operates or the function of the global economy. I will very confidently state this: barring a dramatic change in the ruling philosophies and economic modes of one or both countries, there will not be a war between the US and China in the next few decades.
At the very most, you could get some proxy wars, but China simply does not care to engage in those the way the USSR did in Vietnam, Korea, etc.
