“If the silos under construction at other sites across China are added to the count, the total comes to about 145 silos under construction,” Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, part of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said in a summary of his findings provided to The Washington Post. “We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a U.S. first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat U.S. missile defenses.”

Sounds reasonable and logical. Let's see how WaPo characterizes this.

The discovery follows recent warnings by Pentagon officials about rapid advances in China’s nuclear capability. Adm. Charles Richard, who commands U.S. nuclear forces, said at a congressional hearing in April that a “breathtaking expansion” was underway in China, including an expanding arsenal of ICBMs and new mobile missile launchers that can be easily hidden from satellites. In addition, the Chinese navy has introduced new nuclear-weapons-capable submarines to its growing fleet.

Oh, they just repeat DoD fearmongering.

A Defense Department spokesman declined to comment on the satellite images or to discuss U.S. intelligence assessments of China’s nuclear program. But the spokesman, John Supple, noted that Pentagon reports and analysts have previously raised concerns about the proliferation of China’s missile silos. “Defense Department leaders have testified and publicly spoken about China’s growing nuclear capabilities, which we expect to double or more over the next decade,” Supple said.

They do it again.

Missile silos are easily spotted by trained imagery analysts, and they are vulnerable to destruction by precision-guided missiles in the early hours of a nuclear war. For those reasons, Lewis sees the silo construction project as part of an expanded deterrent strategy by a country whose nuclear arsenal is dwarfed by those of the United States and Russia, which collectively possess more than 11,000 nuclear warheads.

Rather than engaging in an expensive arms race with Washington and Moscow, China has traditionally embraced a “limited deterrence” doctrine that prioritizes a lean but robust nuclear arsenal that ensures Beijing’s ability to retaliate against any adversary if attacked.

This is level-headed and accurate...

In recent years, however, Chinese officials have complained that their country’s nuclear deterrent is losing credibility because of nuclear modernization programs proposed or already underway in Russia and the United States. Beijing has resisted calls to join new arms-control talks because of fears that new limits would forever enshrine its status as a second-rate nuclear power compared with Washington and Moscow.

...sigh.

Photos of the Gansu construction project were supplied to Lewis and Eveleth by the commercial satellite company Planet, which provided a continuous stream of updated images showing progress at each of the construction sites over time. Based on his analysis, Lewis said, there was “a very good chance that China is planning a shell game” in which it hides a relatively small number of warheads across a network of silos.

Smart! But I've cut one sentence off of this paragraph. It continues:

Still, he said, the sudden appearance of so many new launch sites could increase pressure on U.S. officials to speed up efforts to modernize the U.S. arsenal.

Oh it would be China's fault that the US adds to its arsenal that they just said is already several times larger than Chinas. Poor US.

“We’re stumbling into an arms race that is largely driven by U.S. investments and missile defense,” Lewis said.

Yep.

  • XKEYSCORE [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    the obvious expansion of silos in the desert is a defensive move, likely to act like a sponge in the case of nuclear war - drawing the first strike to the desert instead of populated areas. this allows the PRC's road-portable ICBMs to remain relatively unharmed, allowing for a retaliatory strike

    • BelovedOldFriend [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      3 years ago

      The nerve of the Chinese to not want to live under the threat of nuclear annihilation!

  • UglySpaghettiHoe [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    I'm sure all the media figures who said "Israel has a right to defend itself" will be cool with this and respond appropriately

  • Tankiedesantski [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    China's previous doctrine was geared towards deterring one major for (US/USSR).

    Now it must deal with a potential worst case scenario of deterring the US, plus some combination of the UK, India, France, and maybe even Israel.

    Of course the PLA is going to need more warheads and missiles for a bigger mission.

  • sunneonix [none/use name]
    ·
    3 years ago

    Remember when the US thought China had built thousands of missile silos because the people reviewing satelite images didn't know what a Tulou was?

      • Koa_lala [he/him]
        ·
        edit-2
        3 years ago

        I googled, they're homes in the shape of a ring. Looks pretty comfy.

      • infuziSporg [e/em/eir]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Vernacular communal architecture of the Hakka people of southern China. Each tulou is maybe 90-150 meters in diameter and houses the equivalent of a small village, or several extended families. A tulou is typically at least 3 stories tall, not including the foundation, and has a sturdy cylindrical construction so it can withstand earthquakes in addition to serving as defense from raiders or invaders.

        A tulou typically lasts many hundreds of years, and while some of them get renovated, they remain a valuable cultural heritage. They probably wouldn't be suited for retrofitting a missile silo into.

  • Alaskaball [comrade/them]M
    ·
    3 years ago

    No first use (NFU) refers to a pledge or a policy by a nuclear power not to use nuclear weapons as a means of warfare unless first attacked by an adversary using nuclear weapons. China declared its NFU policy in 1964, and has since maintained this policy.

    Only two countries follow the No FIrst Use pledge. India joined the pledge in 1998.

    Obviously the Chinese are so evil and so powerful and so populous that they'll let anyone get in the first punch before they wipe everyone off the earth. No wonder why America has to build up it's nuclear arsenal so it can make that first punch the only punch it needs.

    • My_Army [any]
      ·
      3 years ago

      China already has nukes, but they need more nukes to get from mutually assured retaliation to mutually assured destruction. FYI China has around 200 warheads rn, America has thousands.

  • RedundantClam [they/them]
    ·
    3 years ago

    Funny I just listened to the Blowback episode about how everyone except Kennedy was super on board with starting a nuclear exchange over the Cuban Missiles.

    So something tells me this won't change the US stance in the slightest, but it's good that China is at least building up their deterrent capacity.