I think the Biden Wins (Good) scenario is not realistic. It should go more like the Biden Wins (Bad) scenario, except the left is able to establish itself as distinct from the neolibs and win the argument about why Biden or Kamala is a bad president, preventing conservatives from occupying the space and leading to progressive wins and a strong primary challenge that either wins or forces Biden/Kamala to commit to succdem or at least some degree of demilitarization of society.