Assuming that the left gets its shit together before Homo sapiens goes extinct.

My vote goes to either the USA or France. Especially because the Paris Commune already happened. “Smeagol did it once...he can do it again!” Paris seems to have been packed with rioters 24/7 for several years. Not so different maybe from the American Midwest. The ruling class is investing heavily in police in both countries. It’s afraid!

I know this seems partly delusional of me and that there is far more hope in the Global South unifying and then strangling the imperial core from the outside. But still, gun to your head, pick an imperial core country and explain how and why it will fall first. Marx, after all, predicted that socialism would come first to those places that had progressed along capitalist development the most. (Yes, you are invited to explain how wrong I am about this.) The USA falling to socialism would probably cause the rest of the planet to fall the same way.

edit: my choices seem embarrassing now, thank you for enlightening me comrades.

  • Ryan_Holman [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    I think it will be Russia (again).

    According to a 2020 poll, 75 percent of Russians believe that the Soviet Union was the "greatest time" in the country's history. Now, I think that a significant amount of these people are not socialists or communists, they would be happy with Russia returning to being a hegemon and providing them with a better standard of living.

    In either case, this shows that a lot of people are dissatisfied with their current situation in the country. The government's coronavirus response was poor, with about 22,000 new infections and about 600 deaths occurring every day. Additionally, the richest 10 percent of Russians control 87 percent of the country's wealth (compared to 76 percent in the United States and 66 percent in China).

    At a certain point, there comes a breaking point. This could be massive demonstrations in public or workers going on (perhaps a general) strike. Now, much like in the latter part of the Russian Empire, the government may send in the military to quell this, but the soldiers may instead join them.

    • duderium [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      Yasha Levine and Evgenia Kovda have a pretty interesting podcast called “The Russians.” They say that Russia is pretty much overrun with libs and fash. I’d like to ask how that dovetails with the well known Soviet nostalgia there—since the modern Russian supporters of the USSR may miss it mostly because of how powerful it was rather than because of its being explicitly a workers’ state.

      • penguin_von_doom [she/her]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Soviet Russia, besides strong, was also reactionary and with a good dose on nationalism. There was none of this European human rights and gay stuff, men were men, women knew their place and knew how to cook dinner and take care of the children after a hard day of work, etc. Naturally a lot of these are things that the modern Russian fash values, and to an extend mythologises.

        Yes they may get socialism, but it will not be one that has much love for minorities. Remember that socialism is just an economic system which on its own says nothing about liberation of minority groups. You can have workers owning the means of production and soviets running everything and still have hated and oppressed groups.