On the one hand, we're seeing the consent manufactury kick into overdrive and a lot of state department goblins seem to be absolutely itching for a fresh round of meddling. Cuba as a client state would open the door to all manner of renewed imperial nightmares in the carribean and South America.
On the other hand, it feels like most people's reception of the situation outside of dedicated chuds and Floridians (but I repeat myself) is muted, and I've already seen a few small anti-intervention protests pop up. After two decades of war, with a domestic civil society whose coherency is hanging by a thread and a global presence that is increasingly challenged, I feel like a flubbed regime change effort there would be the true beginning of the end for the U.S.' empire.
If this is a dumb-dumb take, please don't hesitate to tell me so.
I'm not sure there'll be a decisive moment when the empire breaks.
If there is a moment it will either be one that we won't notice until we're looking back on it (maybe it already happened, eg the War on Terror), or it'll be unbelievably horrific for the US (like carrier groups on the bottom of the South China Sea).
balkanization due to climate change will end it. The hordes of people from the southern and western states will be yearning to move to the midwest and the north after their lives become untenable due to constant droughts, heatwaves, and lack of freshwater. This will create an underclass of people living in these states whereas the wealthier folk will move to Michigan etc.