• Socialist government (MAS party) takes power, does cool stuff.

• Opposition is reactionary, as usual, and starts attacking the election itself to claim it's illegitimate. They steal a ballot box, etc.

• Opposition is supported by the usual cast off characters, getting advice and cover from Marco Rubio, the US State Department, and surely CIS types.

• OAS puts out an obviously bullshit report where whoever wrote it up didn't know how to use ggplot2 (amateur hour over here) and, most importantly, premises their entire argument on the idea that the vote counts shifting towards MAS as time went on is "irregular". They intentionally miss the obvious, which is that rural votes came in later and are heavily pro-MAS.

• The combination of the opposition, the OAS report, and the police stoke and amplify riots demanding "fair elections" as well as swarms of reactionaries committing violence against anyone outside the dominant Chauvinist norm, so indigenous people, feminists, LGBTQ+ activists, etc.

• Evo Morales offers to redo the elections due to the public's concerns.

• Finally, the military demands that Evo Morales step down or they won't protect him, i.e. a military coup. Morales does so to protect himself and others, as prominent MAS politicians' homes had been raided, their pets killed, etc. They flee to various places - Mexico, Argentina, hiding out in Bolivia.

• The opposition rapidly moves to appoint an "interim" president, without quorum. They appoint a reactionary that swears up and down on the Bible and immediately takes out IMF loans, attempts to privatize, and implement austerity.

• This "interim" president delays elections until mass organized protest forces new ones. Surprise, surprise: MAS wins again, but this time no coup attempts stick.

Bolivia is a post-colonial, imperialized country, with an extraction economy to match. While MAS has attempted to diversify their economy, resources like wood and lithium are still major exports. Think of it less as a single resource (lithium) and more like a particular political and economic hegemony that is systematically enforced by US foreign policy sociopaths willing to use any dirty trick to shackle a country into their service. Socialists are usually a huge threat to this hegemony because they refuse the shackles: they refuse the IMF loans and their conditions, they refuse the guaranteed poverty of neoliberalization, and they form ties of solidarity with one another, increasing the chances that most or all of Latin America will regain autonomy.

Under the US-desired regime, these countries would continue to export resources for far less money than they should be getting due to systematically underpaying for labor. This is good for US interests, as US ownership of these industries is implied. It gives the US resources and direct economic power over large swaths of the population. This wraps into the Monroe Doctrine, which has only become more expensive and corrosive, where the US considers socialism anywhere in the Western Hemisphere as a threat to its security; keeping governments and economies under their thumb is considered realpolitik for these ghouls. Of course, it literally creates the conditions for socialist uprisings but this has never stopped them before.