Every time it happens, it reminds me that Nassim Nicholas Taleb really does have a good bead (is that a phrase, or did I just make something up?) things. He points out in both Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan how absolutely terrible pundits and other species of prognosticators are at doing their "job." Just...daily you can watch them get every god damn thing wrong, but since they wear a serious face when they say dumb shit, audiences pretend this is Important Work and buy in. No learning from mistakes, ever.