In the wake of the most recent SC rulings on both abortion access in Texas and the eviction moratorium, the general talking points and/or criticisms of leftists/journos/academics I follow emphasize the fact that democrats literally control house/senate/presidency and should take action **right now. ** Blow up the filibuster, pack the courts, etc.
Although I fully agree, it's hard to overlook both ghouls Manchin/Sinema being an immediate wrench in the process of actually doing something. Even more so if we believe the reporting that Manchin/Sinema are essentially fall guys for like 15+ other reactionary dems who don't want to enact progressive policies.
When pressed on this those same leftists/journos/academics sort of just say vague things like "well if Trump could rally for x,y,z with slim majority so should Biden", or don't provide any actual tactics.
I wanna know some like actual fucking tactics Biden could use to whip the dem congress in line. One I've heard is for Biden to essentially weaponize the DOJ to investigate Manchins daughter for price gouging on EpiPens which netted her like $19 million - scare his ass into line.
**For the wonks out there who understand the unfortunate yet real levers of congressional maneuvers - what are some actual tactics Biden can actually do to fucking get things done? **
NOTE: I understand these all require a spine which Biden/Dems don't have nor does Biden even want to eliminate the filibuster. Consider this a thought experiment in the marketplace of idears.
(LIB ELECTORALISM WARNING)
So this is actually a pretty tough question, because you have to consider who a congressperson or Senator is actually accountable to. A President has some leverage, but it varies greatly depending on the President's popularity, the popularity of the thing the President is trying to get the congressperson to do, and what state/district the congressperson represents. There's a thing in political science called the "Green Lantern Theory" - basically it's the (incorrect) idea that the President is like the Green Lantern and can just use his superpowers to get Congress to do what he wants. Biden doesn't have absolute leverage over his party, neither would any other Democratic president including Bernie.
An important thing to remember is this: congresspeople actually get more popular when they buck their own party or show "bipartisanship" or independence. That's why Susan Collins won by near-double digits in Maine last year even though Biden won Maine by a similar margin. It's how people like Manchin can win in West Virginia in the first place when Trump won it by 40 points. Both moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans win in unfavorable states by getting people who normally vote for the other party to vote for them. At least 1/3 of Manchin's voters are Trumpers. Probably at least 25% of Manchin's voters think the Earth is 6,000 years old and that the 2020 election was stolen. I bet nearly half are committed anti-abortionists. If you took just Manchin's voters and asked Biden's approval rating among them, it would be bad. Probably like 30 or 40 percent. Manchin cannot afford to lose a single one of these voters if he hopes to win in 2024 (which he won't, regardless, but that's a different discussion).
Because of this, Biden actually has very little leverage over Joe Manchin. If Biden tells Manchin "I'll go after you if you don't vote for my bills", Manchin will literally take Biden's words and stick them in a campaign ad touting his "independence" and "willingness to work with both parties." And it will be effective. It's not the fun, sexy answer people want to hear, but the fact is Biden does not have a lot of leverage over Congress. And remember, Manchin represents a state so red and is so conservative that he could threaten to switch parties. This is unlikely since Manchin voted to convict Trump, but don't count out the power of backroom dealmaking.
So, if Biden doesn't have a lot of leverage over Joe Manchin, who does? Three groups, really: his voters, his donors, and special interest groups that support him. Why did Joe Manchin come around on the PRO Act? Becuase the United Mine Workers threatened to withhold support from him if he didn't do so. Why does Manchin oppose Medicare for All? Because his donors in the insurance industry don't like it. Other groups, like the DSCC (Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, basically the groups that run fundraising for Dem Senate campaigns) can threaten to withhold funding too. And Manchin will bend to that pressure. But he won't bend to pressure from Biden, because Biden can't actually touch him.
Yes, Biden could threaten a primary challenge but Manchin knows that's an empty threat becuase whoever primaries Manchin will lose the general. Manchin is the only Democrat in West Virginia who could seriously win a general election there. I guess if Manchin felt seriously threatened by a primary he'd move left, but that would have to come from the grassroots more so than Biden.
Kyrsten Sinema is a different story. She does not represent a state nearly as red as West Virginia and I legitimately think she's playing with fire with regards to a primary challenge. I wouldn't be surprised if one popped up, although primarying an incumbent Senator is extremely difficult. Very few ever lose. This is why Sinema is so bold about telling her own party to eat shit. She's making the (historically, pretty safe) bet she won't lose a primary.
You might be thinking, now, "so how did Trump rally for all these things with slim Congressional majorities?" The answer is he didn't. Every time Trump directly challenged Congress, Trump lost. Seriously. Look at the government shutdown in 2019 - the longest government shutdown in US history. It was because Trump shut the government down over the lack of border wall funding which Congress didn't have the votes for. Trump exerted maximum leverage over Congress to pass it, threatening primary challenges and literally withholding troop pay, and Trump completely and totally lost. Look at the stimulus check battle in 2020-21. Trump demanded $2000 stimulus checks in the relief bill. McConnell only okayed $600. Trump threatened a veto, McConnell told Trump to fuck off and McConnell won and Trump lost. This is because Trump did not actually have that much leverage.