Beijing has applied to join an Asia-Pacific trade pact once pushed by the U.S. as a way to isolate China and solidify American dominance in the region.

“It’s a perfectly rational calculation by the Chinese leadership,” according to Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. “Given how the Chinese market is driving the economic recovery, their cards will never be this strong again. Or rather, the cost of rejecting China’s application will never be this high.”

But it remains uncertain whether China will be allowed to join the free trade pact, formally known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, as it would require unanimous approval from the 11 member countries.

The negotiations about joining won’t be simple -- China and CPTPP member Australia are in the midst of an economic and trade dispute which has seen China apply tariffs or block billions of dollars of Australian exports.

Tensions reached a boiling point after Australia called for an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. In May, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue, which had been formed to boost trade and promote talks. The month prior, Australia scrapped a Belt and Road deal between Beijing and the state of Victoria. China has since imposed tariffs on Australian goods including wine and barley. Australia has asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) to rule against the wine tariffs on exports to what was formerly its biggest market.

Canada is also in a dispute with China, with one Canadian citizen jailed for 11 years and another still awaiting sentencing in cases that are seen as linked to the arrest in Canada of the daughter of the founder of Huawei Technologies Co.

A former U.S. trade official said China’s membership in the group isn’t assured given its trade regime and direction toward more central control of its economy.

“It’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to see how they could embrace the CPTPP rules governing state-owned enterprises, labor, e-commerce, the free flow of data, among others, as well as comprehensive market access commitments,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former acting deputy U.S. Trade Representative.

Practices such as subsidies to state-owned enterprises that distort competition are forbidden by the pact. Under Xi's leadership, China has been strengthening the state sector, so negotiations to join could hit a stumbling block from the start.

"As the role of the state becomes all the more prevalent in the Chinese economy, Beijing seems to moving even further away from the market-based, high-standard CPTPP rules," former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Wendy Cutler told Nikkei.

China's new data security law that took effect this month includes a ban on taking data out of the country, which could meet resistance from member countries.

The CPTPP has three principles that ensure transparency and fairness in the distribution of data, including a prohibition on forcing companies to disclose source code. In China, companies have been forced by local governments to disclose technology to obtain permits and licenses.

In addition, the CPTPP calls for an end to discrimination between foreign and domestic companies in government procurement. Beijing, on the other hand, has issued "buy-China" guidelines for government procurement for certain products. The road to membership will be difficult as China prioritizes its own interests.

The CPTPP's restrictions clash excessively against China's economic model and it seems very doubtful that China would even be able to make the reforms necessary to comply with the trade deal as it currently stands. So it appears unlikely that China will even get accepted into the pact unless they're somehow able to successfully lobby hostile governments into granting China major economic exemptions from CPTPP rules.