I think a lot of your predictions are likely, remembering 2004. Ultimately, voting against somebody (now trump, back then GWB) actually does a lot to energize "Blue States," but doesn't drive Dem voter turnout in the Midwest and the Sunbelt (What I'll call "Felix Country" for all the bizarre jokes he makes about these collection of states.) Also, between 2008 and 2019, we the blue/red state terminology fell out of favor because, well, it wasn't very accurate. But in the age of Coronavirus and the failure of federalism, we're starting to see states defined by their Governor's party, and I see a return to the red/blue breakdown that was popular in the early 2000s.
I think a lot of your predictions are likely, remembering 2004. Ultimately, voting against somebody (now trump, back then GWB) actually does a lot to energize "Blue States," but doesn't drive Dem voter turnout in the Midwest and the Sunbelt (What I'll call "Felix Country" for all the bizarre jokes he makes about these collection of states.) Also, between 2008 and 2019, we the blue/red state terminology fell out of favor because, well, it wasn't very accurate. But in the age of Coronavirus and the failure of federalism, we're starting to see states defined by their Governor's party, and I see a return to the red/blue breakdown that was popular in the early 2000s.