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Something will happen in September that makes every prediction in this thread sound silly because they didn't take it into account, and the same is true of October.
Trump will nuke something in September, or maybe October, or he’ll have one fired at the meteor that right now has a 1 in 200 chance of hitting Earth on November 2.
Or maybe One fine morning, Trump will cark it on the bog (die on the toilet).
Biden wins, but is then revealed to have been found dead a week before the election. America collapses into dozens of small regions controlled by competing warlords.
and by warlords you mean corporations. Welcome to the New Republic of PepsiCo.
The old rivalry in Pennsylvania becomes an actual war when negotiations break down between the People's Republic of Sheetz and the Wawa Order.
Ha, imagine Sheetz being a people's republic.
Also, don't discount the Country Fair folks out of Erie.
Okay homie where are we staging our People's Republic? I say Vermont because it's pretty, not filled to the brim with chuds, and I really like cheese.
My top money right now is on straight up Covid Delay. Trump just pulls the election via a tweet and directing the FEC to do something wild.
"Waaaaah he actually can't it's ILLEGAL!!!" -- this is a non-answer unless it actually includes who will literally stop it from happening. Bonus enjoyment if the answer is the DNC.
They would need to go through process and the legal system in the U.S. has been co-opted by the rich long ago. As long as delaying the election is the profitable solution for billionaires, it will be chosen imo. And here I could see it being in their best interests.
If anything it's a free trial on fascism. Give the people a taste.
Isn't the FEC also below the number of appointees that it legally needs to function, or am I misremembering that?
History is a spiral and its 2004 again. Trump will win and take the popular vote this time as well. There will be shady shenanigans, long lines, ballots getting tossed out, etc. but nothing centralized enough for any Democrats to do anything about it.
Also Biden will die in the next 4 years and Trump will gloat tweet about it.
Florida miscount ala 2000, but in every red state. Delegates abscond their duties and vote FOR A FREAKIN' CHEETO x2
If I predict Biden wins and then he wins it's nothing noteworthy. If I predict Biden loses and then Trump wins, I look like I have some sort of super genius political knowledge. That's why I think Trump has it in the bag.
I sorta agree with you. The one counter trend I've seen is that a lot of people are pushing voting and voting registration really hard. Pretty much every liberal organization I know about, plus a whole lot of celebrities and companies, have been sending the message. I don't know if it will work, but if it does than those votes will probably go to Biden.
It literally depends on Trump getting his groove back. If he's entertaining again, he'll win. That Qanon shit recently was a step in the right direction for him.
That Qanon shit recently was a step in the right direction for him.
Did he directly reference/talk about it?
They mentioned this on the recent pod I think, It was more of a nod or suggestion. I believe an interviewer questioned him with "people think your fighting pedos blah blah blah," and Trump said "would that be such a bad thing?"
Doesn't matter who actually wins the election, Trump will try to stay in power anyway. You can't vote out fascism. Trump will either manipulate the results or outright refuse to recognise them to stay in power. I personally think trump will "win" though invalidating mail in ballots, Florida 2000 style voting counts, oviously manipulated voting machines, etc
Exactly he doesn't give a shit about the "rules" or the constitution, Trump will have to be forcefully removed from power. And I don't see the spineless Dems or the fascist infiltrated military doing it.
The military is not on his side. That was already proven out with George Floyd. They largely hate him. He knows this and will not want to risk the embarrassment of being dragged out because his paramilitary thugs in DHS definitely won't stand up to defend him when faced with the military.
Yeah I think the commanders hate Trump but a lot of the actual troops like Trump
They would be, because as I showed below he's not exactly popular with the military (and definitely not top brass who'd be making that call) anyway. DHS is pretty effective against immigrant families and moms, but they would absolutely get mowed down by the military.
TROOP FIGHT
I hope they live stream it and take bets on who wins
Iirc there were some stories in 2018-2019 about the Trumps buying voting machine intellectual property or something along those lines
I think there's a lot of wishful thinking on the left that we're going to accelerate towards something, but it's going to be much more anticlimactic than they want. Biden will win, Trump, coward that he is, will probably do some dumb shit but ultimately lose whatever legal battles he attempts to mount, and all the wine moms on Twitter will be obnoxious as fuck. That's when the real fight begins.
The election is going to be a complete shitshow, some states delay, some hold it during the peak of a second (hard to call it second considering the first won't be done) wave of covid - thousands of geriatric voters die, plenty of younger people do too. Mail in ballots will be lost or miscounted. We won't know the results until December. Won't stop Trump and Biden from declaring victory anyway in November.
There will be some surprises, something like a lot of Dem wins in Texas (not Biden though) - like, M.J. Hegar might randomly win a Texan senate seat. This will be taken as proof positive of intervention in the election by the Trump GOP, OAN, maybe even Fox.
Overall, Trump squeaks out another electoral college win, 271 to 267. He loses the popular vote massively. His victory is owed to a combination of: Biden fucking up his debates and campaign "appearances" (even his zoom call town houses are completely fucked), voter suppression efforts by the GOP in swing states, active tampering of mail-in votes or passive tampering by just not counting "late" ballots, a mixture of unenthusiasm and covid fears suppressing turnout in general, and a sudden surprise drop in late October (like a bunch of Biden's emails are dropped discussing how to hide his rape and general impropriety or something we don't even know about).
Alternately: Trump and Biden both get covid and die, in which case Pence wins way more easily than Kamala or whoever the DNC picks to replace Biden (unless they somehow decide to win by picking Bernie or something).
I think a lot of your predictions are likely, remembering 2004. Ultimately, voting against somebody (now trump, back then GWB) actually does a lot to energize "Blue States," but doesn't drive Dem voter turnout in the Midwest and the Sunbelt (What I'll call "Felix Country" for all the bizarre jokes he makes about these collection of states.) Also, between 2008 and 2019, we the blue/red state terminology fell out of favor because, well, it wasn't very accurate. But in the age of Coronavirus and the failure of federalism, we're starting to see states defined by their Governor's party, and I see a return to the red/blue breakdown that was popular in the early 2000s.
Scenario 1: Biden wins in a landslide. He wins Florida, he wins Texas, he wins Ohio maybe too. Trump, try as he might, is futile in trying to keep control and cedes power in the transition, and then goes and forms Trump TV or whatever. Libs cheer like it's the end of Return of the Jedi or something, and then lose to Tom Cotton in 2024.
Scenario 2: Biden wins, but not by enough. He gets over the line in terms of ballots cast, but delays in the postal vote mean that on November 3rd, it's either too close to call or a narrow victory for either candidate. This is the spiciest timeline, as Trump claims he won and that the Democrats are trying to rig it. It goes to the SC and in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court hands Trump the election. Hellword ensues.
Scenario 3: Trump wins outright on election night. Democrats call foul and try to take it to the SC, but they lose, and Trump stays president.
