I'm not sure I exactly disagree with you but the wildcard here might be further inflation driven by supply chain disruption in the red sea... (whether it's real or just companies seizing on disruption to price gouge), or other escalation in the middle east leading the US to get directly involved or severely embarassed

Also people who aren't in the top 30% of income do absolutely still vote. At lower rates sure, but they do vote. in major elections turnout doesn't go below 50% until you get to severe poverty levels of income