gotta do it after the primary season is over for absolute minimum democratic engagement to pick his replacement
FINALLY SHE DESCENDS UPON HUMANITY ! LIKE LIGHT ITSELF ! FEAR NOT ! HILLARY HAS ARRIVEDGod, I hope you're wrong but there's a higher than non-zero chance you're right.
And then spend years blaming third party/independents/non-voters thinking it will bring them around after Gavin loses to drumpf
Person earning 7 figures just to tell some clowns about made up fake shit predicting if the chips in the casino will fall face up or down is now also having an opinion on PoLiTiCs.
Joe Biden: I don't want to be president anymore
Overpaid JPMC sicko: Joe Biden doesn't want to be president anymore
Business Insider:
Who the fuck they gonna run instead? Buttigieg? Yang? Hillary fucking Clinton? Lmaoooooo
New York and California politicians will never become president. For one, those states are locked blue so there’s no home state advantage to leverage in a purple state. The more important part though is that those people are corrupt slimeballs and everyone else in the country outside those 2 states are repelled by them (see: Giuliani, Cuomo, Newsom, etc)
Trump counts as Floridian
Would be hilarious to see CNN and MSNBC do everything they can to promote Dean Phillips as the younger Biden.
They've spent the last year already using the argument "you might not like it and sure, he keeps explicitly saying he doesn't give a fuck what you think and he won't change any of his policies based on popular opinion but you have tonvote for him because he's THE ONLY PERSON IN THE WORLD who can beat trump"
It's gonna fall pretty flat if they try to say "ok you might also not like this person with the same policies but actually THIS PERSON is the only one who can beat trump"
I mean it'll work on blue Maga but anybody who's not willfully ignorant is gonna chuckle to themselves while figuring out what they want to drink instead of wasting time voting.
I read Yang as Varg for a second. And honestly, the Dems have been mask off lately...
If Biden drops out in the early primaries, it would complete this 4-year farcical play he's been doing where he tries to be the dollar-store brand LBJ. The last act involves retiring following your complete alienation of the youth vote over a foreign policy issue they overwhelmingly oppose you on.
At this point, it would probably be a major boon to the Democrats, since Biden polls incredibly poorly compared to a generic Democrat (as long as they pick someone other than Kamala or Gavin Newsom).
Im not really "that" tuned into US politics. Are there really any democrat politicians people are into at the moment ?
Sinc Oct when all the "progressive" Democrats collectively smashed their "support genocide" buttons, no, not really.
The only democrat at the federal level qualified as this point, in my view, is Tlaib. I know others have since joined her, but I consider anyone who wasn't IMMEDIATELY against Israel's genocide to be basically dead to me forever... on the political stage anyway. Some random dipshit can learn and change their mind, ok. But politicians should have already known and been anti Israel before Oct. So, whatever, fuck em all. For the rest of my life, or until Palestine is free, I'll be looking at each candidate and it they take money from AIPAC or express any support for Israel, not voting for them. If that means writing in or not voting, ok. The dems can get my vote if they value it. But they gotta give up genocide and that means give up Israel.
You're really going to do that? The upcoming election is THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF YOUR LIFE. Enough with the purity tests, jfc
If voting changed anything, it would be illegal. If Trump wins, racist gangs will rove the streets with presidential approval. If Biden wins, racist gangs will rove the streets with strongly worded presidential opposition.
Unironically Pritzker is someone to watch out for although imo not this election cycle. Of the democrat governors, I've seen more positive and less negative from him. Motherfucker got me legal weed and a paid vacation. That's powerful energy going into the future
It's wild that the richest politician in the country is somehow one of the better ones
Same reason FDR was smart enough to invest in guillotine insurance.
I have met more than one rich person IRL who gets what’s going on and understands how to actually keep capitalism running. Weirdly it’s the CEOs and people who have inherited vast sums (like Pritzker) that are the sharpest on this. Entrepreneurs and business owners are completely off the deep end though, they all think they’re characters in an Ayn Rand novel.
If I was a soulless billionaire I would be pushing for social democracy tout court.
Inb4 a mega billionaire takes it too far for them and accidentally presses the communism button that also guillotines them at the same time
Oh, I've been here. I've been contemplating going out of my way to see you play one of these days but I don't want to be cringe irl
Haha, you're all good! I've met a number of people from this site. DM me if you ever wanna!
It's better than nothing, but imagine what I would've accomplished without federal interference.
I don’t want to say I “like” Pritzker, but I’m not sure I have the right words for it. He’s definitely made me ask myself which is better: a “leftist” politician like AOC or Bernie who won’t even try to get anything done (or just not very good at getting things done; to me AOC is the former or Bernie is the later), or a more centrist lib like Pritzker who at least can be funny and also an asshole who can actually get shit done, even if it’s just meager improvements.
As far as I can tell, not really, but there are certainly democrat politicians that are quite loathed. Simple indifference would be a massive improvement over the attitudes towards Biden.
Biden polls incredibly poorly compared to a generic Democrat (as long as they pick someone other than Kamala or Gavin Newsom).
so basically the concept of a generic democrat but not any particular generic democrat?
Chapo boys said years ago that they'd win every election if they just ran blank silhouettes named "[popular policy]" instead of any specific dem
well then they'd have to actually do the policy which would defeat the whole point of a bourgeois election
well then they'd have to actually do the policy
No, they get away with not doing things they promised all the time
Been talking to socialist alternative about this recently. I think that since bourgeois politicians are in the end only going to do things businesses want, they prefer to run on bullshit over lying when possible. So they're "a President you could have a beer with", not the other guy, etc. They try not to make specific promises, in my local elections half the time they don't even bother putting together a policy platform until they're elected. When they are dumb enough to make a specific claim, they obfuscate and say it's some other politician's fault the thing didn't get done and they're "in talks" about it, or they have to try and gaslight everyone that they meant $2000 total instead of $2000 checks, or whatever. People remember that stuff; there's a limited amount of lying you get before you lose re-election to the other party (representing a different slice of capital).
The thing SAlt really liked about Bernie is that he made Medicare For All more important than the guy himself. Every time he got up on stage he talked about it and if elected he might have even tried to do it*. I think there is some value to getting specific policy proposals in the public eye. Everybody's been calling for "police reform", whatever that means, for the better part of a century. But once people started to say "defund the police" - literally decrease the police department budget - the gloves came off and we got a tremendous backlash from the bourgeois parties. It's too specific. In a few decades they'll probably be renaming police departments to Department of Resident Health and Wellness and calling it defund, but for now candidates who say they support defunding actually mostly mean it, voters believe that they mean it, and so the rest are forced to tell you straight that they won't defund. In Chicago Lightfoot ran on "police reform", but Johnson did not run on defunding the police and strenuously tried to avoid talking about it.
* no enforcement mechanism obviously
I mean there'd be no enforcement mechanism to make President Bernie do M4A, once he's in office he can do whatever. You could maybe theoretically have an accountable politician in a bourgeois democracy if their entire campaign apparatus was done by a worker's party, and if they did bad stuff in office the party would guarantee that they would not be reelected. But dubious on a national level or with term limits - think of all the stuff the lame duck presidents do. Right now the social democrats have their own campaigns that get support from a bunch of different orgs, so when DSA helps elect a promising politician they can generally just fuck off, break all their promises to the org, and get reelected on their own as an incumbent.
A JPMorgan strategist predicts Joe Biden could "have information leading to the arrest of Hillary Clinton" sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons.
important to note that this is basically a "just for fun" section, dunno why BI is picking it up. source
Market Strategist Byron Wien passed away last year at the age of 90. For over 30 years whether at Morgan Stanley or Blackstone, Byron published a top ten list of surprises for the following year. I never read any of the articles that kept score on how well Byron’s predictions did since that’s not the point. They were an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus. In Byron’s honor, for one time only, here’s my list of top ten possible surprises for 2024.
neat newsletter. I have a soft spot for capitalists who nevertheless face economic motivation to be truthful. You can get some nice stuff reading from a Marxist perspective and at the same time laugh at them complaining that the EU has been "underspending" (<2% GDP) on war.
Tidbits (emphasis mine):
We also expect wage inflation to decline based on the decline in advertised wages (second chart); observed declines in temporary help, manufacturing and overtime hours worked, unit labor costs, the “job switcher vs job stayer” premium, the share of private industries with rising employment and the voluntary quits rate; and rising female labor force participation. While negotiated pay raises are still at peak levels, union workers are only 7% of the workforce, below the 20%-30% range which prevailed during the 1970’s.
new wave of union militancy starting to show up in the data. fuck yeah
The problem for the US is the starting point; every round of fiscal stimulus brings the US one step closer to debt unsustainability. I don’t think we’re there otherwise we wouldn’t recommend long duration US government bonds. We also wrote last year on how there has been no material change in the dollar’s role as reserve currency.
to give accurate financial advice, you have to recognize that the US national debt doesn't really matter much. JPMC also recognizes as realistic possibilities
- a wealth tax
- further pushback against pharmaceutical capital in the form of Medicare negotiation and stuff.
Estimates of US household excess savings
now that's a trendline, check out this graph. something funny will happen when it hits 0
China’s challenge stems from misallocated investment in real estate rather than from excess industrial capacity. Its home ownership rate peaked at ~90% and 20% of Chinese households own more than one home.
China’s 430 square feet of housing stock per capita is double the levels in Europe or Japan (D. Gros/Project Syndicate)
66% of US households own the home they live in. Whole section is interesting. Bigger Chinese households?
A member of the boug tells Biden he should quit while he's still ahead
his frontal lobe could barely handle the last election, now he's 4 years older
That's also true, maybe he will bleed from both eyes at once during the debates this time. I was astonished at the reversal (recovery) of his health once the stress of the campaign had ended. No way his body can withstand whatever racehorse adrenaline/ drag racing nitrous concoction they were pumping him full of at his appearances last cycle
Somehow the opinion of a JPMorgan asset management strategist is newsworthy.
It's pretty much a made up story. Who knows where this guy said this thing and in what context.
"Yeah biden might withdraw, yeah Godzilla might terrorise ny."
Hey listen Jack, we in the administration, has, I have... I have information that will lead to, frankly, the arrest of uh ahThink about it, genocide and student loans are not gonna sway boomers or Gen Xers one way or the other
Trump's legal battles are gonna bog his campaign down and many of his supporters don't trust voting because of his "2020 steal" narrative
Housing prices and the line are up which means everyone in the top 30% income percentile who isn't online adores Biden
Biden will probably win with a slightly larger margin than last time
he certainly isn't going to ride in on a populist wave but I'm not convinced he'll lose either. People not knowing or caring about his pitiful policies is a double edged sword, they don't give a shit enough to know that his policies are terrible.
Not doing anything good is still better to most people than actively making things worse (not that biden isn't doing that, but it doesn't get covered like it did under trump), and frankly there's gotta be a contingent that just doesn't want to hear the media go back to full on trump derangement syndrome round-the-clock coverage.
I mean that's all true, but only American leftists care about that stuff, the vast plurality of the population are totally disengaged from politics and won't vote anyway, so none of the facts you mentioned matter to them
The actual freaks who vote like the fact Biden is a fascist, of course they don't use that word but to them Biden is "tough on crime", "tough on the
Arabs/muslimsterrorists", "doesn't take shit from the Kremlin Republicans"And the the economy is doing good (line is up and housing is expensive), "the New York Times said so"
Old dude is gonna win it outright, it's 2004
Maybe. I think he's going to lose a lot of the youth vote. None of those things apply to them.
anecdotally I do know some people who've finally moved past "but if you don't voot blue you're voting for trump" in the past year or so. Not a ton, but a couple, and they aren't necessarily hardcore leftists either just done with genocide joe's shit
I think a lot of those people will start singing a different tune the closer the actual election gets and the more the media resumes talking about Trump.
"The media" ends up in front of you whether you watch it directly or not. Shit filters down into social media and online discourse.
There's a reason the youth are incredibly negative about Israel and it's not because they get their information from msnbc
Well yes one benefit of social media is us leftists get a bit of a voice on there too. But make no mistake MSNBC has their fingers in that pie too.
I think he's going to lose a lot of the youth vote.
You mean the vote that matters the least?
After decades of constituting the majority of voters, Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation made up less than half of the electorate in 2020 (44%), falling below the 52% they constituted in both 2016 and 2018. Gen Z and Millennial voters favored Biden over Trump by margins of about 20 points, while Gen Xers and Boomers were more evenly split in their preferences. Gen Z voters, those ages 23 and younger, constituted 8% of the electorate, while Millennials and Gen Xers made up 47% of 2020 voters.
Biden barely won and a big part of it was record voter turnout from younger voters
The narrative that young people don't vote fell flat on its face in 2020
If by youth vote you mean Gen z yea still not great, and not to fall for the trap of saying millenials are young but those groups everybody scoofs at make up the majority of voters now.
The youth vote might not matter, but youth support does. They contribute labor to these campaigns that would cost incredible amounts if the DNC had to pay people.
Yeah and those of us who voted for the first time in that election are now in our 30's and the party still hasn't done jack shit for us
None of this is new though. There's been plenty of presidents who didn't deliver Jack shit but still won re-election. Obama was a total let down and he shit got a second term.
but he didn't have nicknames like DementiaHitler and Genocide Joe for his counterpart to use over and over
Nah. Biden's numbers have returned to pre Oct 7 levels. The corporate donors and the new suburban members of Biden's coalition don't care about genocide; his defense of Israeli terror probably redounds to his benefit. The economy is working for the people the economy is supposed to work for, inflation has slowed, and the fed will ease rates in the coming year, spurring sentiment and allowing young people into homes. The student loan policy has discharged billions, and income driven repayment frees kids from snowballing debt. Labor participation is up, labor is crushing w public polling, labor is winning concessions. No one remembers about Biden and the railroad, but they will see him again and again in ad spots standing w the auto workers. He is hawkish on the border, which dampens one of the few possible salient conservative talking points (his position is also quite popular). Bidens serious mistake was arguably, if one squinted, his most progressive -- fleeing Afghanistan.
Trump has a hard ceiling and little room to grow. His refusal to accept the 2020 results, along with self destructive culture war overreach, led Republicans to the worst midterm showing in modern history. Both remain albatrosses on the party's neck. Referenda on abortion restrictions have lost literally everywhere, and the issue will mobilize otherwise unenthusiastic dems in November. Trump, avoiding news cycles thanks anemic Republican challengers and geopolitical drama, will again become the center of national attention, and remind the electorate of how tired it is of him. He is looking at serious criminal cases, which are seen as legitimate (at least outside of the New York state one), and which touch on serious issues of constitutional order and democratic values. The liberal media is staunchly against him, and will use their networks to underscore Trump as existential threat. He very well could be jailed, reducing enthusiasm among sober conservatives.
Dems have won the last three election cycles. Hillary is not on the menu, Trump is a known quantity and is deeply disliked, and the current legal cases, unlike the Mueller matter, are compelling and understandable and are being prosecuted and undertaken by adversarial institutions. Unless the economy tanks (not impossible surely, given some global shock) this is going to be a slim but comfortable Dem W.
Everything else is wishcasting, hoping you can dunk on libs for not listening, but there will be no karma at the ballot box; the libs never needed you.
Biden will probably win with a slightly larger margin than last time
Big
there.I don't think its possible to call this election at the moment, but i do doubt he does better than in 2020. It'll be interesting to see what the turn out is compared to 2020 as well. I wouldn't be suprised if its lower on both sides
Definitely lower turnout on both sides but I think biden will hold on to his margins in total
The coming dem campaign against Arab Americans and Muslims in general will convert some reactionaries who soured on Trump the last 4 years, while Trump will still be talking about the "steal" and court minutiae
That sounds more realistic to me. Biden could win and he could hold his margins. I just doubt he does better, if he does win. I agree that overall the "steal" and court shit aren't great angles for Trump to maintain appeal to the Republican party as a whole. I'm not sure they'll pick up the swing reactionaries though
I'm not sure I exactly disagree with you but the wildcard here might be further inflation driven by supply chain disruption in the red sea... (whether it's real or just companies seizing on disruption to price gouge), or other escalation in the middle east leading the US to get directly involved or severely embarassed
Also people who aren't in the top 30% of income do absolutely still vote. At lower rates sure, but they do vote. in major elections turnout doesn't go below 50% until you get to severe poverty levels of income
Anythings possible and I'm not gonna pretend logical analysis is even meaningful when it comes to electoralism
That being said, he barely won last time and has worked hard to piss off union members, environmentalists, and anybody who is against genocide while completely failing to do anything about roe or student debts.
I don't see how he's picked up any new voters since barely winning and I'm sure there's millions of people who just vote for whoever isn't rhe incumbent since they didn't get rich in the last 4 years.
Yeah I've had similar thoughts and gotten similar pushback from people on here. Biden is polling bad rn cuz of general bad vibes, but the demos who actually turn out to vote are still comfortable with the status quo, and I think a lot of the angrier young people will get scared back into backing the blue once the election is closer and the media starts scare mongering about Trump again. Trump diehards are still gonna diehard but I think his support among the broader right is wavering a bit.
It will tho, Trump's hogs want racial animus and anti-lib owning, courtroom drama is for Sorkin fans
Courtroom sketches and liberal pudents on TV controlling the output of information from the court is gonna bore the hogs to tears and again bog his campaign down
It's possible, but anything can happen before November. I'm not bothering to make any (real) predictions until like a week before the election, though I am hoping the year of four presidents ends up happening
year of four presidents
just so we're clear that's biden dying, kamala replacing him, then trump wins the election then he's incapacitated and replaced by whoever?
Actually the Republicans are floating this idea that if Trump is constitutionally barred from taking office due to January 6th, in the case of him winning the election the White House goes to his VP pick.
though, to be the year of four presidents, this would all have to go down in the three weeks before J20 so I'd probably consider converting to Islam if it happened.
Hell, I'd convert to 4 different religions just out of respect to the big G if that went down like that.
Yeah I'm surprised with how much confidence people arguing here. I wouldn't bet money on either side, that's for sure.
